The UK's rise in Covid-19 cases has been described as "extremely worrying" by an expert, who says the spread of two strains, lack of testing and waning efficacy of vaccines has led to the spike.
Professor Denis Kinane, a world-leading immunologist and founder of Cignpost Diagnostics, says mandatory face masks must be reintroduced and has urged people to be careful when out in public, as the "troubling" increase of Covid-19 cases in summer is just the precursor to the "traditional autumn surge". He says that infection rates are fast approaching 350,000 a day
Professer Kinane added that the two of the most prevalent strains of the virus, Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, are able to re-infect those who have already had Covid and those who are have received all of their vaccinations because of immune escape - meaning they have been able to overcome immunity developed to protect against other strains.
Additionally, those who had their booster jabs in December and January will be more susceptible to the virus, because efficacy starts to "wane at three months" and the formula is not as "effective against emerging subvariants", the Mirror reports.
Yesterday, we reported how the latest data released by the ZOE Covid Study showed that as of July 11 there have been 349,773 new daily symptomatic infections. Infections rates are at their highest since April 2022 and are quickly expected to hit the 350,000 a day mark.
These rates could be higher because free testing has ended and there is no requirement to test as well. Prof Kinane said the UK's testing strategy last year saved many lives, but the end of free testing has hindered experts' ability to monitor the virus' behaviour and has led to individuals mixing and unknowingly spreading it.
He fears the lack of testing could be "troublesome" and "more dangerous" as we approach the autumn months. Here, Prof Kinane answered our questions on the current rise of Covid cases:
How worried should we be?
There are some extremely worrying trends in the rising number of infections, particularly when compared to the levels from a year ago. These are already leading to a gradual rise in hospitalisations.
The concern now is that as these new strains infect more people and pressure on the NHS intensifies – a double whammy ensues, that is medical cases increase at the same time as staff absences, due to infection rise. We, therefore, have a simultaneous increase in demand and a decrease in supply and, whilst this is problematic for Covid management, it is a further blow to the NHS as it attempts to reduce the large backlog of cancer and other life-threatening diseases cases.
That is not to say that Covid in itself is not devastating; a quick analysis of the growing numbers of long Covid cases is a testament to how concerning this pandemic remains. That is exactly why we need to remember that Covid is still a dangerous and highly infectious disease and to remain cautious - especially for those who are vulnerable, immunosuppressed or come in contact with these groups.
The current sharp rise in UK Covid cases has been driven by the emergence, rapid transmission and immune escape of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 strains.
This has resulted in a summer surge, which is troubling as we still await the more traditional autumn surge, and for variants to appear from the southern hemisphere’s winter season. And so, on cue, we are now seeing the emergence of the new BA.2.75 variant, nicknamed "Centaurus".
First detected in India in early May, cases of the new variant of the Omicron strain are increasing exponentially in the UK - apparently multiplying twice as fast as the BA.5 strain. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have already designated it as a ‘variant under monitoring.’
How many people actually have Covid-19?
According to the latest statistics published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 1 in 25 people in England has COVID-19, compared to 1 in 160 at the same time last year (1 in 18 and rising in Scotland).
Moreover, an estimated 2.7 million across the UK tested positive for COVID-19 in the week ending June 29, up a staggering 18% from the previous week, and hospitalisations have risen 33% in a week. Infections rates are at their highest since April 2022 and are quickly expected to hit the 350,000 a day mark.
Do we need to be wearing masks?
Yes, where appropriate. The virus will continue to evolve and develop structural changes that make it invisible to our immune system, whether we have gained immunity through vaccination or natural previous Covid infections.
We have no indications yet that a step change in disease severity is on the way, but we do know that vaccine immunity begins to wane at three months and in most cases is markedly reduced or non-existent at five months. Even though immunity wanes, it can come back quickly after the person contracts the virus again.
No one wants to return to full lockdowns, so taking reasonable precautions and being socially responsible are vital. This includes using face masks, especially in enclosed and crowded spaces, and where people mix and vocally interact.
Why are fully-vaccinated people getting infected?
As a large part of the UK’s population has already been vaccinated and/or has been infected with Covid, there is a prevalent artificial and natural immunity across the community. However, two things are at play: firstly, immunity derived from vaccines wanes over time and protection is not guaranteed.
Secondly, this virus is highly mutational and new variants which have an immune escape from previous variants are appearing every three months or so. A majority of individuals had their boosters back in December and January, but in reality, the life of a vaccine drops at around the three-month mark and by six months it needs to be boosted again.
Moreover, the vaccination programme has been geared to earlier variants of Omicron, so they are not as effective against emerging subvariants. In fact, the BA.4 and BA.5 strains have been shown to overcome immunity developed for other strains (immune escape) of the virus as evidenced by the rising numbers of reinfections.
Why are people catching it and then getting re-infected so quickly?
With cases rising in the UK and globally, and new variants emerging, it is clear the virus is continuing to evolve and people are now getting re-infected at a rapid pace. This new surge of infections is being driven by the rapid growth of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 variants, largely through super spreader events.
Covid cases jumped 20 per cent after the Jubilee weekend and events like Glastonbury Festival and Wimbledon are enabling case numbers to spiral.
Ending free testing also contributes to re-infections, as people are far less likely to be diagnosed, so they are mixing with others while unknowingly carrying the virus. This opens us up to additional risk.
Because we are not mandated to test and isolate, social attitudes to virus hygiene are much reduced. Many individuals are going back to work too early and not isolating sufficiently, and are therefore increasing virus spread.
How does your blood type affect Covid infections?
Research has suggested that blood types do have an impact on Covid-19 infection patterns. For example, blood groups A, B and Rh+ are found to be more susceptible to Covid-19 infection, whereas groups O, AB, and Rh- are at a lower risk of infection.
It is important to note that while the association has been noted regarding susceptibility to infection, so far, no association has been found between blood type and susceptibility to the severity of disease and mortality. There is evidence of these blood type associations, but this type of research is rarely definitive, and many associations exist whilst few are ever proved causal and thus important.
More important associations are, for instance, the extremely strong association between age and severity of Covid; the susceptibility of obese, or those with pre-existing lung conditions who are severely affected by this respiratory viral infection.
Why does it seem like LFTs aren't picking up Covid infections?
Lateral flows only detect Covid-19 infections once your viral load reaches a very high level. Prior to reaching this high viral load and long after reaching this peak, individuals are still infectious. One of the reasons SARS-CoV2 spreads so well is because asymptomatic individuals spread the virus effectively, and these would simply not be picked up by lateral flow devices.
In contrast, PCR tests are much more sensitive and detect viruses even prior to symptoms. Through regular PCR testing, Cignpost has been able to keep vital industries running, even through very high infectious waves.
It is true that PCRs remain positive for longer, even if the virus has already disappeared, but by using the infectious history and counting days from infection, and knowing the exact viral load provided by the PCR test, we can more safely return people to work. An alternative is to wait for two consecutive days of negative lateral flow tests, with those two tests being taken 6 days after catching the virus.
Do we need to return to PCR tests?
Over the course of the pandemic, the UK’s effective testing strategy allowed it to track the virus’ behaviour and allowed the Government and public health experts to ensure targeted containment measures were speedily deployed. This was effectively demonstrated by the rapid provision of boosters once we saw Omicron appearing early last winter.
This undoubtedly saved many lives. The ending of universal free testing has inevitably reduced our ability to analyse the virus’ behaviour minutely and has played a part in discouraging people from testing regularly.
The UK requires a baseline level of surveillance to track the virus’ behaviour. A return to PCR tests is the most conclusive and accurate way to implement this.
It is problematic for employers to ask employees to return to work when no testing is taking place and no prevention of workplace spread or guidance is provided. This is troublesome and could be more dangerous as we approach the autumn months and when new variants emerge.
Don't miss the latest news from around Scotland and beyond - Sign up to our daily newsletter here.
