Australia went into the recent COP29 negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan with high hopes of being anointed to host the COP31 2026 meeting in Adelaide alongside our Pacific neighbours, a promise Labor took to the 2022 election.
Now Türkiye stands in the way.
It is refusing to cede to Australia the right to host despite the bid having the support of 29 mostly western European states that are responsible for the decision.
At COP29, Turkish representatives were reportedly seeking to undermine Australia’s campaign by portraying us as unfit to host given we are a major contributor to fossil fuel emissions.
It’s an argument Australia may find difficult to counter.
For decades Australia has been perceived as a laggard at the yearly Conference of the Parties climate negotiations, most infamously with its insistence on the “Australia clause” at the Kyoto negotiations which gave Australia a 108% increase in greenhouse gas emissions while the vast majority of states agreed to a reduction of around 5%.
The daily “Fossil of the Day” awarded by Environmental Non-Governmental Organisations (ENGOs) at COP, has been won by Australia more than any other country for its often intransigent behaviour.
In Baku this month, Australia, looking to move past its previous poor COP performances, agreed to contribute $50 million to the Loss and Damage Fund, making it the sixth largest contributor.
It promised a further $125 million investment into the Pacific region’s renewable energy transition. This comprised $75 million for the Renew Pacific program which will underwrite off-grid and community scale renewable energy, and $50 million to fund the Australia-Pacific Partnership for Energy Transition which will support Pacific states to ensure they better receive the benefits of ongoing renewable energy investments.
Australia also called for an ambitious and equitable understanding of the Collective Quantifiable Goal (NCQG) to both recognise and count essential Loss and Damage funding within the target.
Despite this, the Australian delegation, led by Environment Minister Chris Bowen, was called out in week two of negotiations by a coalition of NGOs to be more supportive of the Lesser Developed Countries’ (LDCs) positions given they will inevitably bear the brunt of climate change-related damage.
They argued that the concept of loss and damage be prioritised within the new climate finance goal. However, their plea fell on deaf ears as Bowen left before the final plenary so he could attend Parliament back in Canberra.
Australia was fiercely criticised at COP29 for its ongoing policies supporting the extraction and use of fossil fuels, despite arguing it wants to be a “renewable energy superpower” selling “green hydrogen” to the world.
Erin Ryan of the Climate Action Network argued that Australia, as a wealthy nation and a huge fossil fuel exporter, “failed to drive bigger ambition”.
“This is about realism. Getting better financial arrangements is key to getting global support for rapid fossil-fuel phase-out globally,” she said.
This combination of poor reputation, lack of leadership and the relative paucity of financial commitments could hurt Australia.
Not even Bowen’s meetings with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum, could persuade them to budge.
Bowen offered Türkiye a key role at COP31 on building resilience but the nation declined without making a counter-offer, arguing it was a superior candidate because it was better placed to act as a link between developed nations and LDCs.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese raised the matter with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at the G20 Summit in Rio but was also rebuffed.
Australian and Pacific ministers argued not resolving the decision at Baku would undermine preparations needed to host the large-scale event.
The Turks remained unmoved. A decision has still not been made.
Australia will have to seek to burnish its climate change credentials for the next year through concrete actions and continued financial support, particularly in the South Pacific, if its desire to host its first climate COP is to be achieved.
At the same time, it will have to redouble its diplomatic charm offensive with other states and global civil society if it is able to see off the threat of Türkiye hosting COP31.
However, that task will be made more difficult due to its well-won reputation as a climate “foot dragger”. Then there is the fear that the Albanese government may not survive next year’s election, leading to the return of the Liberal-National Coalition which has shown a general distaste for global climate cooperative action.
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