As forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad make significant advances in Syria, Turkey is closely monitoring the situation for any potential spillover effects. Turkey, which shares a long border with Syria, has been a key supporter of opposition groups seeking to overthrow Assad since the start of the civil war in 2011. The conflict has resulted in a large influx of refugees into Turkey, with the country currently hosting 3 million Syrians.
Turkey's Position and Objectives
Turkey has consistently emphasized its support for Syria's territorial integrity and has conducted military operations in northern Syria to create a buffer zone along its border. The recent offensive, led by jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Turkish-backed Syrian militias, aligns with Turkey's goals of pushing back against Kurdish forces allied with the PKK.
Denial of Involvement
Turkish officials have denied any direct involvement in the offensive, stating opposition to actions that increase regional instability. Despite designating Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization, Turkey is believed to have influenced the group's activities indirectly.
Risks and Potential Outcomes
The offensive poses risks for Turkey, including potential tensions with Syria's allies, Iran and Russia. However, there are hopes that the offensive could pressure Assad into reconciliation with Turkey and lead to negotiations with the Syrian opposition. Turkey also aims to push Kurdish forces away from its borders and facilitate the return of Syrian refugees.
Future Uncertainties
While the offensive may align with Turkey's strategic objectives in Syria, questions remain about the extent of control Turkey has over Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the potential implications of a jihadist organization gaining ground in a neighboring country.
