With Russia's invasion of Ukraine entering its second year, questions over Turkey's equivocal approach to the conflict are likely to become more insistent. While Europe united in condemning Russia and swiftly imposed stringent sanctions on Moscow, Nato member Turkey took a more nuanced stance.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, already having good ties with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, deepened his relationship as the Ukraine conflict worsened. At the same time, Turkey has supplied weapons to Kyiv.
The Turkish and Russian leaders smiled as they met on the fringes of a central Asia summit last year. The two self-styled strongmen regularly meet face-to-face or by video link. That relationship, Erdogan argues, allowed him to play a pivotal role in assisting the United Nations in brokering a deal between Ukraine and Russia to allow Ukrainian grain access to world markets, an agreement which helped to avert surging food prices and famine, especially in Africa which relies heavily on grain from Ukraine.
With the grain deal coming up for renewal next month, Turkish diplomats are working hard to ensure its extension. Political analyst Ilhan Uzgel of the Kisa Dalga news portal says the success of the grain deal is seen as a vindication of Erdogan's policy of maintaining close ties with Putin.
The grain deal "was a relief, especially for north Africa. It was praised by the United States. That was very important to the image of Turkish diplomacy," said Uzgel.
"These things are important internationally because it reminds the Western world that Turkey can play a critical role in this region," added Uzgel.
Ties with Moscow
Stressing the need to maintain close ties with Moscow, Ankara refuses to enforce western sanctions against Russia. However, the European Union has strongly criticised Ankara for failing to enforce sanctions and fears that European companies could use Turkey to circumvent the restrictions.
"For the West, it's important that the enforcement of the existing sanctions is as watertight as possible," says Maria Shagina, a specialist on international sanctions at the Institute for Strategic Studies.
Shagina warns Washington is stepping up its efforts to tighten sanctions against Russia.
Moscow is using Turkey to circumvent high technology sanctions against Russia, which could leave Turkey open to the risk of secondary sanctions.
"There are accusations that some Turkish companies, with or without the knowledge of the government, are actually attempting to export or reexport high technology goods or microchips to Russia, which would definitely elicit sanctions," warned analyst Atilla Yesilada of Global Source Partners.
"A couple of billions of trade here or there doesn't make a difference," added Yesilada. "But there are two red lines, financial sanctions and high-tech goods, because they sustain the Putin regime."
This month, the Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu at a press conference with his US counterpart Antony Blinken rejected allegations that Turkey had become a backdoor allowing Russia to acquire proscribed high technology.
"The allegation that products that can be used in the defense industry, such as electronics, are exported by us to Russia is not correct," said Cavusoglu.
"We asked both the US and the European Union to give us any documents if they have any evidence. If there is any negligence in sanctions, we will take care of it. Our position is very clear and precise," added the Turkish foreign minister.
