Turkey’s election is widely considered to be the most important in the world this year – as a fight for the future of Turkish democracy, a referendum on a strongman populist leader, and a possible shift in Turkey’s influential role on the world stage.
After a long and tense vote count, neither Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – the dominant figure in Turkish politics for 20 years – nor his main rival, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, reached the 50% threshold for outright victory. They will go to a runoff in two weeks’ time.
What happened in the vote?
Parliamentary and presidential elections took place in Turkey on Sunday. In the 600-seat parliament, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development party (AKP) and its allies secured by far the most seats, 321, while the opposition won 213 and the 66 remaining seats went to a pro-Kurdish alliance.
In the presidential vote, Turkey’s Supreme Election Council had Erdoğan at 49.51% and Kılıçdaroğlu at 44.88%. A third candidate, the ultranationalist Sinan Oğan, took a vital 5.17% that appears to have kept both Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan from getting over the 50% line.
Election day was characterised by controversy over different figures being released by two leading news agencies, and efforts by both sides to frame them to their own advantage.
Why is the election so important?
The elections are crucial to the future of Turkey’s battered economy –, but also as a marker of the state of democracy in an era of authoritarian leaders in fragile democracies around the world. The vote had been presented as a last chance to stop Erdoğan from turning the country into a full-blown autocracy.
Why was it close?
While Erdoğan’s grip on the levers of power has brought Turkey close to autocracy, he has made serious economic missteps recently. He has increased his control of the theoretically independent central bank and steadfastly refused to increase interest rates despite inflation that officially touched 80% last year and which independent analysts say could, in reality, have surpassed 100%. Turkish people are far poorer and more uncertain of their futures as a result.
The government response to the devastating recent earthquake was widely viewed as inadequate. In February, Erdoğan made the tone-deaf comment that “whatever happens, happens, this is part of fate’s plan”.
However, he has outperformed expectations and appears to be further ahead than was previously predicted.
Who is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu?
Kılıçdaroğlu, a dour former accountant and bureaucrat and the longtime head of the Republican People’s party (CHP), was not a universally popular choice among the opposition to stand.
A social democrat, Kılıçdaroğlu is at the head of a coalition that includes nationalists who are only supporting him because of their desperation to unseat Erdoğan. He has promised to stand down after a single term after instituting more conventional economic policies and restoring full parliamentary democracy.
Was the election fair?
The speed of the count, and how that information has been put out to the public, has been contested. The opposition claims ballot boxes were withheld in areas where it had majorities, and that the count has been weighted to give figures for areas that support Erdoğan and the AKP first, and then slow-walking and contesting the opposition’s count.
While Turkey is not an autocracy, Erdoğan is said to have influence over the election authorities. He has liberally disbursed incentives to voters to back him again, increasing government workers’ pay by 45% five days before the election, reducing electricity prices and giving people a free month of natural gas supplies. Meanwhile, the Turkish media, largely controlled by his allies, has given him much more airtime than Kılıçdaroğlu: one study found that in April he got 32 hours on state radio and TV against 32 minutes for his rival.
How will the runoff go?
Erdoğan clearly has the advantage. But the question of which side is able to successfully spin a story about its own success – and thereby either create a sense of momentum for the opposition or stymie it – will be central. The fight over the interpretation of the vote is really a symbol of how divided the country is. It is a question of whether Kılıçdaroğlu can plausibly say: “Just a little further, we can do this.”
One question is where the votes for the ultranationalist third-place candidate, Oğan, will go. Voting for him was seen as a protest vote. It is possible his voters will be accepting of Kılıçdaroğlu because there are nationalists in his coalition. Oğan is being interviewed on the hour by different channels to say what he wants from the runoff. He is already the kingmaker.
That leaves Kılıçdaroğlu in a bind as his campaign has been leaning increasingly left to get support from the Kurds – infuriating the nationalists. He has defended the rights of the marginalised Kurdish minority, even as Erdoğan has sought to tie him to an insurgency waged by Kurdish militants. Now Kılıçdaroğlu needs to lean right, and in practice that could mean disavowing the Kurds – even though they have feted and welcomed him.
