As Azerbaijan is hit by drone attacks and its security forces claim to have arrested Iranian agents planning attacks against Israeli interests, fears of contagion in the Iranian war are rising. For Turkey, which has a defence alliance with Azerbaijan, its relationship with Baku is complicated by the latter's close ties with Israel.
On 5 March, drones attacked the airport of Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan exclave, which borders Iran.
Baku blamed Iran, a charge Tehran denies. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev condemned the attack as “terrorism” and warned Tehran of a severe response if the attacks continued.
The drone strikes are viewed by Baku as a warning over its close ties with Israel.
“There are some verbal attacks from [social media] accounts associated with the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards that Azerbaijan should expel Israeli agents and things like that. We responded that we are not part of this conflict,” explained Farid Shafijev, chairman of the Baku-based government-affiliated think tank, the Center for Analysis of International Relations.
“We are watching closely, and the Azerbaijani military is on high alert in case of any new provocations."
Following the drone attack, Azerbaijani security forces claimed to have arrested Iranian agents planning attacks against Israeli interests, including the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan crude oil pipeline – which is believed to provide around 30 percent of Israel’s oil needs, shipped from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
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Azeri minority in Iran
"Azerbaijan has been a strategic partner for many years,” explained Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies, an independent think tank in Tel Aviv.
She claims the Iranian war is strengthening the relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel, which she explains in part thrives on "the location of Azerbaijan as a neighbouring state to Iran, which also fears Iran in an existential way, similar to Israel".
Despite Baku’s claims of neutrality, Iranian suspicion of Azerbaijan over its ties with Israel are also fuelled by Iran’s large Azeri minority.
In recent weeks, Iranian security forces have arrested dozens of ethnic Azerbaijanis accused of working for “foreign powers".
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“The Azeri minority in Iran is a huge number – 20 to 25 million people – densely populating the territory of two huge provinces of Iran,” explains Azerbaijan expert Zaur Gasimov of the German Academic Exchange Service, a joint organisation of German universities that fosters international relations.
Their Azeri identity remains strong, with the language widely spoken despite being banned in secondary schools. However, Gasimov says ethnic Azerbaijanis are well integrated into Iranian society – but Tehran remains suspicious of this minority, given its past.
“If we look back to the history of the Second World War, there was an Azerbaijani republic from 1941 to 1946 with its capital in Tebriz. That, of course, forged certain sensitivity on the Iranian side."
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has voiced growing support for Iran’s Azeri minority.
"Independent Azerbaijan is a place of hope for Azerbaijanis living in Iran,” he declared after March’s drone attacks.
“Azerbaijan does not want the breakup of Iran and chaos inside Iran,” stressed Shafiyev. But he says Baku’s priority is the treatment of Azeris in Iran.
“There might be different scenarios. The escalation of the war, the internal disturbances, civil war, things can go in different directions, and among the public in Azerbaijan, this is a very sensitive issue, the security and wellbeing of the Azerbaijan population in Iran."
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Delicate diplomacy
While Azerbaijan’s involvement in the Iran conflict would likely be welcomed by its ally Israel, it would cause alarm for Turkey – given its commitment to Baku’s defence under a 2021 treaty and its strong opposition to the war against Iran.
“It would put Ankara and Turkey in a difficult place,” said retired Turkish ambassador Timur Soylemez, "but I don't think we are anywhere near that."
Soylemez acknowledges the Iran war requires Turkish diplomacy to finesse its close relationship with Azerbaijan, which is also deepening ties with Israel, whom Turkey increasingly views as a threat to itself and the wider region.
“The relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran has always been a tricky one, and of course, the [Azeri] diaspora is another very important dimension of that relationship," he added. "But that has been a relationship that has been carefully managed for a very long time, and I think both sides will continue to carefully manage it and not see this war as an opportunity to play with this fault line."
