Hello, and if you’re marking the days off on your Partygate calendar when you wake up each morning, it’s time to chalk up another one. When we learned last week that the Metropolitan police had issued another 50 fines, there was an obvious next question: how many more are there to go? And when can we expect to know that the investigation which might decide the fate of the prime minister is at an end?
So far, there are no good answers. This matters for the civil servants still waiting to learn if they will face a fixed penalty notice. But it also creates vast uncertainty over the future direction of the country at a time of overlapping national crises.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Guardian police and crime correspondent Vikram Dodd, and former chief superintendent in the Metropolitan police Dal Babu, about what, exactly, is taking so long. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
Ukraine | More than 260 Ukrainian soldiers were evacuated from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in the port city of Mariupol, appearing to cede control of the city to Russia and ending the longest and bloodiest battle of the war.
Economy | The governor of the Bank of England has warned of “apocalyptic” rises in food prices as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Andrew Bailey blamed the war for the highest inflation in the UK in three decades.
Prevent | A draft report on the government’s counter-terrorism programme makes the controversial claim that it is too focused on rightwing extremism rather than Islamist extremism, the Guardian has learned.
Brexit | Boris Johnson has said a legal move to ditch parts of the Northern Ireland protocol is only an “insurance” policy. Ahead of an expected statement from Liz Truss to MPs today, it emerged that the legislation has been delayed for some weeks.
Football | The Blackpool forward Jake Daniels has ended decades of silence within men’s football to become the first current player in the UK to come out as gay in more than 30 years. Daniels, 17, said he hoped to be a role model.
In depth: What we don’t know about Finegate
It’s been more than 100 days since then-Metropolitan police commissioner Cressida Dick announced an investigation into Downing Street parties, and more than 80 since her acting replacement Stephen House said he expected the work on “partygate” to take weeks, rather than months.
There is an awful lot we don’t know about Operation Hillman, the codename for the investigation – and meanwhile some important questions about the criteria of Durham constabulary’s probe of the “beergate” story involving Keir Starmer. But we know this: it’s definitely been months now. So far this week, the most substantial development has been Jacob Rees-Mogg helpfully suggesting that it was time to rethink fixed penalty notices altogether. To be clear, that is not a substantial development.
“Some stories, you get a broad sense of where it’s heading, and the likely level of severity,” said Vikram Dodd. “With this one I just don’t think we know with any meaningful certainty.”
Here are some of the key issues for the Met (and, to a lesser extent, Durham constabulary), with the massive caveat that it’s easier to flesh out the questions than the answers.
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Why is it taking so much longer than they initially expected?
Dal Babu has some sympathy for the scale of the undertaking facing officers involved in Operation Hillman. “It’s a huge undertaking,” he said. “They’re investigating a large number of parties, and they need to go through each one individually with a view to the wider strategic picture of how they’ve decided to go about it.”
At the same time, Babu added, “it’s not rocket science. These are entry level offences, the kind of things you’d normally get probationary constables to look at. And there’s all the evidence you’d ever wanted: a crime scene, professional [police] witnesses, card entry where people tap in and out, loads of CCTV. It’s almost impossible not to get an accurate result.”
“The logical explanation is that there’s more work than they expected – more evidence, and/or more suspects who they are looking at to issue fines,” said Vikram. You might think that suggests House’s February estimate was rash, or points to a failure by the Met to sensibly assess what they were dealing with back in January: in any case, nothing the force has said will let you know. Since House’s statement, there has been no public reevaluation of the likely timeline.
It might be easier to understand if we knew the order in which the Met was approaching the 12 incidents under investigation, but the outcomes so far suggest that it is not doing so chronologically – and the Financial Times has reported that those dealing with it in No10 feel there is “absolutely no discernible strategy” to the sequencing, much to their chagrin. “We have little solid idea where they are in the process,” said Vikram. “It could be we’re barely halfway – if Johnson gets five more fines it wouldn’t be amazing; if he got none it wouldn’t be amazing either.”
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Who is advising the Met on strategy?
In high profile cases, said Babu, “usually what’s called a gold group is put together – specialist advisers, internal or external, whose work sits alongside the main investigation.” A gold group is meant to help the force deal with the outside factors that may play into their work; participants might be experts in communications, or stakeholders with a well-informed view of the likely impact of the results. “The gold group is not involved in the details of the investigation,” said Babu. “But they might say, for example: what about the implications of doing an investigation during an election?”
There may be a gold group involved in Operation Hillman – but if there is, the Met isn’t saying who’s on it, or whether it exists at all. “It’s one of the shortfalls of the system – there’s no transparency for assessing who’s advising if it’s a bespoke group for a particular incident,” said Babu. “It can be very arbitrary – it’s entirely up to the police.””
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What are the criteria for an investigation or a fine in Downing Street?
The fact that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak were both fined for what appears to have been one of the most minor incidents under investigation, the “ambushed by cake” birthday celebration in the Number 10 cabinet room, might appear to suggest that the bar is being set low.
On the other hand, Johnson is reported to have told friends that he does not expect to receive further penalties – and said on 4 May that he had not received a police questionnaire about at least one key event: a leaving party for his aide Lee Cain, at which he is believed to have poured drinks.
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What are the criteria for Durham constabulary to issue a retrospective fine?
There is, meanwhile, the separate matter of the “beergate” claims about Keir Starmer’s takeaway curry and beer during a campaign visit to Durham. Starmer has said he will resign if he is fined, but that leaves open the possibility that the police will find a probable breach but decide against issuing him with a fixed penalty notice – the approach it took in the Dominic Cummings case. (When asked, Labour shadow ministers have deflected by suggesting that one without the other is unlikely.)
Vikram cautions against relying too heavily on that precedent to draw assumptions about what will happen to Starmer – and Dal Babu agrees: “Right from the start, from the very first conviction by the British Transport Police which was overturned, we have seen the difficulties that come with rushed legislation. We don’t know what will happen even with an apparent precedent.”
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Why is the Met sharing so little information?
There are many more fundamental unknowns over the “partygate” case, says Vik: “Are you talking to the Crown Prosecution Service? How many staff do you have on it? The Met are being super secretive, even by their standards.”
Babu has some sympathy for the difficulty of the position the police now find themselves in. “I don’t think there should be an investigation in public or on a press deadline,” he said.
Ultimately, though, he views that as a problem of the Met’s – and in particular Cressida Dick’s – own creation, thanks to their initial reluctance to take on the task. The Met refused to look into the allegations until the press and Sue Gray’s inquiry had already uncovered a great deal of evidence.
“If you’d used a little bit of common sense, you would have acted sooner,” he said. “If they had got on with it then, it could all have been done and dusted by now. Instead, it’s all been very Inspector Clouseau.”
What else we’ve been reading
Simon Parkin’s long read about the commercialisation of Albert Einstein, and the university which has made a fortune out of him, is absolutely great. It’s not clear he would have been happy – but they’ve made more than $250m. Archie
Grace Dent is back with a third season of Comfort Eating and it’s incredibly enjoyable. Dent’s first guest is television presenter James May and together they ask all the big questions, such as: is soup a main? And what counts as proper food sharing etiquette? Nimo
With tiny pensions, poor mobility, and relatives who in many cases have already fled, the oldest women in Ukraine are enduring the worst of Russia’s invasion. Angelina Kariakina met some of them. Archie
Julia Serano writes this fascinating piece that examines why men harass women on the street. Drawing on her experiences as a trans woman and academic theory, Serano explores the ways in which people who are marked as “public spectacles” receive unwanted attention. Nimo
In this week’s rendition of a new start at 60, Paula Cocozza talks to Marian Elliot, who, after a 40-year marriage, finds herself divorced. Elliot navigates her new life that comes with the highs of new friendship and new community and the lows of isolation and loneliness. Nimo
Wagatha Christie latest
Coleen Rooney finished up in the witness box revealing that not even her husband had known about the sting which led to her infamous “It’s ……… Rebekah Vardy’s account” revelation. Jim Waterson was there to hear Hugh Tomlinson QC, for Vardy, analyse what was meant by all the dots, suggesting she’d presented the reveal like a “whodunnit” – only for Rooney to insist she has “dots in a lot of conversations”. Today, Wayne is expected to take the stand.
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Rooney said she decided not to go to Vardy before posting the accusation in public: “I know it sounds tough – but at the time I didn’t think she would tell the truth even if I confronted her.”
Sport
Football | Arsenal fell to a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle, a result which means they will be beaten to Champions League qualification by Tottenham Hotspur if their rivals secure a point against Everton in their final game of the season.
Tennis | The former junior Wimbledon champion and Olympic silver medallist Laura Robson has announced her retirement at the age of 28. Robson, who peaked in the top 30, had undergone three hip operations.
Football | The government is concerned that the £4.25bn takeover of Chelsea could collapse because of the alleged refusal by Roman Abramovich to accept a new sale structure. Less than a fortnight before the deadline for a deal, Whitehall sources say that they fear Chelsea could go out of business.
The front pages
“Bank chief’s warning over ‘apocalyptic’ food prices” – the front-page lead in the Guardian today. The Express, the Daily Mail and the Telegraph all have similar splash headlines, adding that the Bank’s governor says he is “helpless” in the fight against inflation. The Financial Times’ line is “Bailey deflects blame for soaring inflation on to global ‘shocks’”. “For once, just do the right thing” says the Mirror – it reports the Tories are expected today to block help for struggling families funded by a windfall tax on energy companies. The Times says “Petrol firm ‘profiteers’ fail to pass on duty cut”. “Proud to say I’m gay” – the Metro on Jake Daniels, whom the i quotes as saying “I don’t want to lie any more”. The Sun says “Wagatha trial – Coleen: Vardy’s evil texts”.
Today in Focus
Florida’s ‘don’t say gay’ bill
Florida’s legislature has introduced a bill that would allow parents to sue school districts if they consider lessons to not be ‘age-appropriate’.
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Angelina Namiba was diagnosed with HIV in 1993. She thought she had months to live. But three decades later she is alive and well and running a support group in east London called 4M Mentor Mothers Network for new mothers living with HIV. The program is led by Black women from migrant and refugee backgrounds who support new and expectant mothers to come to terms with their diagnosis and supporting them through the pregnancy.
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