Good morning. The “King of the North” will not be marching south – at least not for now.
Andy Burnham has been barred from standing as an MP in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton byelection, after a 10-strong “officers’ group” of Labour’s ruling body, which includes the prime minister, voted overwhelmingly to reject his request to stand. It has left the party, once again, in turmoil.
The controversial decision staves off, at least for now, a potential leadership challenge. But the move has infuriated some Labour MPs and the party’s union backers. It was described as “petty factionalism”, a “huge mistake” and cowardly, and has been condemned as a failure by the party leadership to embrace the country’s most popular Labour politician.
No 10 will hope the anger blows over and the decision swiftly ends this round of Labour’s chaos and, as one senior cabinet member put it, “psychodrama”. By putting out one fire, though, the party, as always, may have ignited several others.
To understand why No 10 made this move and what is next for Andy Burnham and the party, I spoke to Peter Walker, the Guardian’s senior political correspondent. That’s after the headlines.
Five big stories
US news | Donald Trump’s efforts to deploy militarised immigration agents in US cities may finally be reaching a reckoning as he faces widespread opposition across the US, dissenting lawmakers in his own party, and impending court rulings after the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti.
UK news | Former home secretary Suella Braverman has defected to Reform UK, making her the third sitting Conservative MP to join Nigel Farage’s party in little more than a week.
Europe | As many as 380 people may have drowned attempting to cross the Mediterranean last week during Cyclone Harry, as a shipwreck that killed 50 is confirmed by Maltese authorities.
Saudi Arabia | A judge has ordered Saudi Arabia to pay more than £3m in damages to London-based dissident Ghanem al-Masarir, whose phones were targeted with Pegasus spyware.
Ukraine | A US security agreement for Ukraine is “100% ready” to be signed, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, after two days of talks involving representatives from Ukraine, the US and Russia.
In depth: ‘They see the threats from Reform getting bigger and bigger’
In a fateful Zoom meeting last weekend, Labour’s national executive committee scuppered Andy Burnham’s bid to return to Westminster. Though the move was seen as a deeply political one, the argument justifying it was procedural. Allowing Burnham to stand would have meant a costly mayoral byelection and political distraction, Labour’s leadership said.
So what happens now? Peter Walker tells me Burnham (above right, with Starmer) simply goes back to his two day jobs: “Being mayor of Greater Manchester and getting on Keir Starmer’s nerves.”
Burnham has long played a dual role inside Labour. As Peter puts it: “Burnham always says loyal things,” but at the same time insists: “We could be doing this, we could be doing that.” Burnham has never hidden the fact that he believes that if he were in Westminster, “he would be a better choice than Keir Starmer to lead the Labour party and give it a kind of direction”. (It is worth reading my colleague Archie Bland’s First Edition on Burnham’s political ambitions.)
In some ways, Peter says, this is simply a politician’s ego. “There is always, in any party, probably 20 or 30 people who think they could be doing a better job.” But for a growing number of Labour MPs, Burnham’s appeal goes beyond that. “They see the threats from Reform getting bigger and bigger,” Peter says, and they worry that “if we stay under Keir, the country may be changed forever.”
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Burnham’s evolution
Burnham’s political journey has not been a straight line. He ran for the leadership in 2010, coming fourth, and again in 2015, finishing second to Jeremy Corbyn. Back then, Peter says, he was seen as “Mr Cabinet Minister”, who was loyal and would get the job done.
At that time he was broadly a centrist, but two things changed him, Peter explains. The first was Hillsborough. “There was this famous occasion where he was culture secretary when the government was holding out against a formal inquiry and he got booed,” Peter says. “He went back to cabinet and argued, ‘We need to do something about it,’” then went on to play a central role in getting the Hillsborough law passed.
The second was becoming mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017 and building what he now calls “Manchesterism” (Burnham himself delved into what that means for the Guardian a few days ago.) Peter describes this form of governing as “soft left, pro-growth, but quite interventionist devolution”. It’s about giving people local powers, but intervening when necessary, and includes public ownership of utilities.
The clearest expression of this ideology is the Bee Network, Greater Manchester’s integrated transport system linking buses, trams, cycling and walking. “It’s pretty good,” Peter says. “Aside from London, it’s a model of how UK cities can do integrated transport.”
Peter remembers how fervently Burnham was pushing for this kind of governing at the Labour party conference in 2021, when Starmer was in opposition and Labour were suffering under the Boris Johnson vaccine bounce. “I actually asked his aide at the time the number of fringe meetings he’d been to, and they had lost count,” he says. “He would say then, ‘This is what it’s like to be Labour actually in power. This is what we need to do’.” It places him on the left, Peter says, but far from the politics of the Jeremy Corbyn era.
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To block or not to block
From Labour’s perspective, this was an open and shut case, Peter tells me. Party rules prevent mayors from standing as MPs because of their policing responsibilities. Burnham was “seeking an exception”, and “they didn’t think there was a good enough reason why”.
Had he been selected, Burnham would have had to step down as mayor partway through his term, triggering a Greater Manchester byelection covering 27 constituencies. “It would have cost the party and the country a huge amount of money. They would have had to endlessly campaign for that, while also trying to campaign for the local elections in May,” Peter says.
On the flip side are Labour’s and Keir Starmer’s dire polling. “Burnham’s got this burning personal ambition, but some of the people backing him think it’s not just about having a different person in No 10 – it’s about having someone who they genuinely believe has got more of a vision, of a message, more of a charismatic approach, which could turn the polls around,” Peter says.
There is an argument that this leadership challenge is different from the political musical chairs we saw with the Conservatives. “Back then, they were switching between PMs because people were out of favour, they were Boris fans or Rishi fans or Liz fans,” Peter says. “People in Labour argue there is more to it this time. They see where Labour are in the polls, they see where their polls are going, and they’re getting scared – not just for their own seats – but about what a Reform government could do.”
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A three-way race
Peter believes Burnham’s “star power would have been enough” to hold the Gorton and Denton seat for Labour. Burnham has said as much, posting on social media on Sunday that the party would now lose the byelection.
The contest will be a tough one. “Andrew Gwynne’s majority in the last election was about 13,400, which you would think would be enough to hold. But you’ve got Reform, who will go for it. You’ve got the Greens, with a very good local candidate who’s likely to stand and is well known,” Peter says.
The Greens have been bullish about their chances. “It’s a tough ask, but it’s possible they could take enough votes away from Labour for Reform to sneak in and win the seat,” he says. “That’s really bad for Starmer. It makes him look as if he’s made this factional decision based on personal reasons to protect his own position and lost his party a seat.”
For now, Burnham waits. If Labour loses Denton and Gorton, pressure will grow to give him the next available seat, Peter says. He isn’t alone in thinking this. Tom Watson, the former Labour deputy leader, predicted that Andy Burnham will become an MP “sooner rather than later”, in a Substack essay published yesterday.
But when and where is important. Running in a byelection and losing could spell the end of Burnham’s career, Peter says.
As for Starmer, plenty of dangers lie ahead: he is going to China this week, he has to keep Trump on a leash, and he has to maintain support for Ukraine, all while keeping the domestic news focused on the cost of living.
“No 10’s argument is that the only way we can beat Reform UK is by making people feel that their daily lives are getting better,” Peter says. “So schools are better, hospitals are better, people have more money in their pocket. And anything that doesn’t do that is taking away the party’s central message.”
But the local election is looming and there are threats from all sides. In Wales, Labour is forecast to do “very, very badly”, Peter says. In England, councils that have been Labour “since the dawn of time” are under threat. In London, Reform could take outer boroughs, while the Greens eye inner ones.
A red wedding is coming. Time will tell whether Burnham or Starmer is the unfortunate groom.
What else we’ve been reading
Joel Snape has some encouraging news for those of us who’ve been put off trying to build muscle thanks to conventional “no pain, no gain” wisdom: namely, that science suggests there’s a better way. Lucinda Everett, newsletter team
Georgia has become ground zero in the fight over AI’s explosive growth, and its massive demands for energy and water. This fascinating piece explores why opposition is rising and how the backlash is taking shape. Aamna
Simon Hattenstone’s interview with Sajid Javid runs the gamut from Partygate to the omnipresent racism in his childhood to his (actually quite serious) teenage brush with the law. An engrossing read. Lucinda
Jason Okundaye is sharp and nuanced on why claims of injustice by six-figure earners are absurd, yet reveal something profound about what it now means to live well in the UK capital. Aamna
I enjoyed hearing from Guardian readers about their favourite baffling TV shows, from Legion, the Marvel spin-off with no superheroes, to The Leftovers, which reader Mark Hawksley gave the write-up: “I still don’t really understand how it ended, but what a ride it was.” Lucinda
Sport
Football | Thierno Barry, the £27m summer signing from Villarreal, struck his fourth goal in five Premier League games to earn Everton a 1-1 draw against profligate Leeds.
Tennis | World No 1 Aryna Sabalenka ended the teenage challenge at the Australian Open with an emphatic quarter-final final victory over Iva Jovic.
Rugby | The Rugby Football Union is hopeful a proposed overhaul of Twickenham rail station and the deployment of undercover police officers on matchdays will help sway opponents of plans to host more concerts to pay for the £660m stadium upgrade.
The front pages
“Tories face backlash after ‘mental health’ jibe over Braverman’s exit” is top story at the Guardian. The i paper splashed on “Tories weaponise ‘mental health’ claim on defector Braverman – as exodus grows”, while the Mirror ran “Reform’s latest Con” and the Telegraph led on “China hacked phones in No10”. The Mail says “Burnham rebellion growing” and the Times has “Labour fears stumbling to third in by-election”. “Dollar slumps to four-month low and yen rises as gold breaks $5,100 barrier” was the FT splash. The Sun ran “Clan United”, in reference to the Beckham family.
Today in Focus
Starmer v Burnham: will it split Labour?
The prime minister may have seen off the challenge for the moment – but what will be the cost to his leadership? Peter Walker reports.
Cartoon of the day | Pete Songi
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Mass layoffs and cancelled projects in the gaming industry. The White House using video game memes as ICE recruitment tools. The rise of the “manosphere” and the fall of mainstream feminist websites such as Teen Vogue, while bigots celebrate the death of “woke”. “[It’s] a dismal stew of doom for someone like me, a queer woman and a feminist who’s been a games journalist and critic since 2007,” says Maddy Myers, who is launching a gender- and identity-focused gaming publication called Mothership.
Independent and worker-owned, it will rely on subscribers’ support and will “report on the good and bad of modern-day game-making – alongside investigations, reviews, criticism, and historical deep dives into games and developers who paved the way to now”.
Myers says: “It should have existed before, when I and millions of other girls who grew up playing games were made to feel out of place by media and advertising that was laser-focused on teenage boys. But it’s not too late for me to make sure it exists now.”
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
