Good morning. It is going to be a busy summer in France. Emmanuel Macron’s shock decision to dissolve parliament and hold snap elections means the country will go to the polls on 30 June and again on 7 July – just three weeks before the opening ceremony of the 2024 Olympic Games.
The French president called the parliamentary elections after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) won 31.4% of the vote in the European parliamentary elections – more than double the 14.6% for the French president’s centrist alliance.
Triggering the vote is a “huge gamble”, says Jon Henley, the Guardian’s Europe correspondent. It is a move designed to ask the French people whether “they really want to be governed by these guys”, or were using the European vote as a very public protest.
France is not the only country where the far right has increased its share of the European parliament vote. Far-right and hard-right parties are on course to hold almost a quarter of the seats, up from a fifth in 2019. The biggest gains are in Europe’s three largest countries – France, Germany and Italy – although they have not performed as well as first projected before the vote in other European nations.
Jon will talk us through Macron’s poker game and the political picture across the continent, after the headlines.
Five big stories
Israel-Gaza war | The UN security council has adopted a resolution calling for Hamas to agree to a three-phase hostage-for-ceasefire proposal outlined by Joe Biden, the first time the body has endorsed a comprehensive peace deal to end the Gaza war.
General election | Conservative rightwingers are planning to present Rishi Sunak with demands for tougher action on immigration and human rights law before the election if the prime minister’s manifesto promises to be released today fall flat.
Travel | Singapore Airlines has offered $10,000 compensation payments to passengers who suffered minor injuries during a flight last month that hit sudden, extreme turbulence.
UK news | Two 12-year-old boys have been found guilty of the murder of Shawn Seesahai, 19, who was killed in an apparently unprovoked machete attack in a Wolverhampton park in November. The pair, who cannot be named because of their age, have become two of the youngest convicted murderers in the UK.
Environment | Microplastic pollution has been found in all human semen samples tested in a study, and researchers say further research on the potential harm to reproduction is “imperative”.
In depth: ‘Macron wants a confrontation’
“It was a huge shock,” Jon says of Macron’s address to the nation on Sunday night, in which he dissolved parliament and called an election. “It’s a massive, massive gamble, a monumental risk – you have to hope his calculations will prove correct.”
Macron told the country the strong RN vote had created a “situation which I cannot countenance” and he had therefore “decided to give you back the choice of our parliamentary future with a vote”.
Jon says Macron has been struggling since he lost the parliamentary majority in 2022 and been “reduced to using controversial and unpopular constitutional tools to push through unpopular measures like pension reforms”.
At the same time, the RN the largest opposition party with 88 seats, “sits in a very comfortable position slamming everything the government does and steadily climbing up the [opinion] polls”.
“Macron wants a confrontation,” says Jon. “He wants to ask the French people the real existential question: ‘You have voted for this party in ever increasing numbers, time and again, over the past 20 years – I just want to ask you now, do you actually want to be governed by these guys?’”
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Why did Macron call parliamentary elections now?
The parliamentary elections were not due to be held until 2027, but Macron – as president – has the power to call them early. Jon says Macron is thinking strategically. “He may have lost in the European elections, but they are very different to national elections,” Jon says.
“They are traditionally seen as an opportunity for a protest vote, a low-cost, low-risk way of giving the government a bloody good kicking, but not necessarily a reflection of how voters would vote at national elections. It is similar to how Ukip used to do well in the UK’s European votes.”
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What if the RN wins the election?
Jon says the odds are against Macron’s centrist Renaissance party and its allies winning a majority, but that the RN are also unlikely to win one. “The most likely outcome is very messy scenario, with the RN winning more seats but not enough for a majority,” he says. “The next three years until the presidential election in 2027 will be like trench warfare.”
If RN does get a majority, convention would dictate that Macron ask the party to field a prime minister. “That would most likely be Jordan Bardella, the telegenic, slick 28-year-old RN president who plays a bloody good game on TikTok,” Jon says.
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Who is Jordan Bardella?
Bardella (pictured above to the right of Le Pen) was elected to the European parliament five years ago when he was just 23. He grew up on a housing estate in Saint-Denis, at the heart of the low-income, multi-ethnic Paris suburbs that have been so stigmatised. He describes himself as a part of a generation that grew up in the “embers” of the 2005 urban riots, in which young people living in estates across France rose up after the deaths of two boys who died hiding from police.
“He represents youth, speaks well, looks like the ideal son-in-law, is modern – that is what people want, and he’s reached a level of superstardom,” Aymeric Durox, a RN senator, told Angelique Chrisafis for her profile of Bardella, who – as the son of Italians who arrived in the 1960s – is presented as a “good immigrant”. A protege of Marine Le Pen, he also has close ties to the family and is in a relationship with Le Pen’s niece, Nolwenn Olivier.
Jon suspects Macron is gambling that if the RN do win and Bardella does become PM he could struggle with the “nitty gritty of hard choices”. “Macron will hope that with three years to go until the next presidential election, in spring 2027, the RN will have long enough to show themselves as fundamentally incompetent at the business of government ,” he says.
“The huge risk, though, is they might – heaven forbid – do a good job, and then you have invited the far right into power,” he says. “You can’t overstate how massive a gamble this is.”
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What about the rest of Europe?
Initial fears of a far-right surge were overstated. “There was a far-right advance, and they have ended up with a record number of seats,” Jon says. “But it’s still less than a quarter of the assembly with about 145 MEPs, compared to the main centrist block who are going to have about 450 out of the 720 seats.
“Those far-right gains almost all come from three big countries: France, Germany and Italy. Elsewhere, the far right actually underperformed compared to expectations.”
In Germany, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won 16% of the vote – more than any of the three parties that make up the beleaguered coalition of the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, but behind the conservative CDU-CSU opposition. In Italy, Brothers of Italy, led by the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, was a big winner too, scoring 28%
“But outside those big three member states – and Austria, where the Austrian freedom party (FPÖ), as long predicted, finished first on 26% – the hard right’s scores often underwhelmed. Vlaams Belang underperformed in Belgium, scoring less than 14%, as did the Danish People’s party (6.4%). The Finns (7.6%) and the Sweden Democrats (13%), both of which are either in or supporting rightwing governments, disappointed.”
For much more from Jon and the Guardian’s Europe correspondents on the fallout of the elections and beyond, sign up here to receive This Is Europe every Wednesday
What else we’ve been reading
The dangers of asbestos are well documented but a number of British women are alleging that it can even be found in beauty products because of talcum powder. Anne Karpf takes a look at the evidence and speaks to some of the women (one, Hannah Fletcher, is pictured above) who claim that they contracted mesothelioma – a treatable but incurable cancer of the lining of the lung, heart or stomach – because of makeup. Nimo
Bamboo has become the next Japanese knotweed rising up to punch through paving stones, asphalt and even the foundations of houses, Simon Osborne discovers in this piece hearing Bambusa vulgaris horror stories from households across the country. Rupert
ICYMI: Claire Armitstead’s interview with playwright Jeremy O Harris gives interesting insights into the ideas and thoughts behind his provocative work Slave Play, which is coming to the West End after a stint on Broadway. Nimo
Roma photojournalist Eszter Halasi followed a Romany family on their 10-day journey by cart, pulled by their horse Lucifer, to the Appleby Horse Fair, the annual gathering of Gypsies and Travellers in Westmorland. Rupert
How did a striking house built by one of the most famous and revered architects in the world fall into ruin – and what role did Kanye West play? For the New Yorker (£), Ian Parker traces the twisty story of the concrete LA home that has been left a husk of its former existence. Nimo
Sport
Football | German police believe a squad of up to 500 Serbian hooligans will try to cause violence at England men’s first game at Euro 2024 on Sunday. Peter Both, the chief of police in Gelsenkirchen, said the challenge would be to intercept the group before they were able to clash with England fans in the west German city. England play Serbia on Sunday evening at 9pm local time (8pm BST) in the Veltins arena, which is home to the Bundesliga 2 club Schalke.
Football | A non-league club in North Yorkshire has been condemned for withdrawing support for its six women’s teams, leaving more than 100 girls and women without a club. Thornaby FC’s committee voted on Saturday to remove the teams, which range in age from under-sevens to adults. Thornaby Women said they were “devastated” and the England forward Beth Mead said she was “disgusted” and offered support to those affected.
Cricket | Bangladesh lost against South Africa in their T20 World Cup group game after failing to take 11 runs from their final over.
The front pages
The Guardian leads this morning with “Tory right plans to give Sunak set of demands if manifesto falls flat”. “Sunak offers tax breaks to landlords” – that’s the Daily Telegraph while the Times says “Tories offer lower taxes and help for homebuyers”. “Up the workers! PM promises 2p cut in national insurance” says friend of the worker the Daily Express while the i lights that scene more starkly: “Sunak pins hopes on NI cut to rescue stricken Tory campaign”. “My pledge on kids’ health” is billed as a Keir Starmer exclusive in the Daily Mirror. “Labour’s reluctance to rule out capital gains tax rise stokes investment fears” – just the sort of concern you’d expect the Financial Times to air while the Metro leads with “Red O-lert” saying there is a “Hospitals blood crisis after cyber attack”. The top story in the Daily Mail is shocking: “Britain’s 12-year-old machete murderers”.
Today in Focus
How a far-right push in Europe triggered a shock election in France
The far right has made significant gains in the European parliament elections. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has responded with a high-stakes gamble.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Khalida Popal, the co-founder of Afghanistan women’s football team, was forced into exile because her outspokenness and defiance made her a target for assassination. She has written a book with the Guardian’s Suzanne Wrack about her life, overcoming violence and her enduring passion for football. Popal has shared an extract from that book which highlights the challenges she faced in the years following the Taliban’s fall and the joy in creating community through sport in the face of extreme misogyny and hostility.
“With the school quiet, we could be ourselves, we could talk, and we could also celebrate, shout and express ourselves playing football. These were new experiences and new emotions. Girls shrieking with glee at having wrongfooted the goalkeeper, before lashing the ball between the rock-goalposts against the wall, which we imagined would ripple like a net – this was not normal or accepted. Shouting for my teammate to pass me the ball or gasping loudly as my leg entwined with another’s, seeking to grapple the ball free of their possession, was utterly exhilarating. These girls had spent their lives being taught that women were to exist in the shadows, on the periphery.”
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
