Hopes of a fares freeze or cut were sparked on Thursday after Sadiq Khan revealed that expected income from Tube and bus passengers will be lower than initially predicted.
The mayor is expected to unveil his annual fares package on Friday, outlining changes to Transport for London services, including the Elizabeth line and the London Overground, from March 3.
He is expected to impose an average increase in Tube and rail fares of at least 4.9 per cent, in line with the Government’s increase in national rail regulated fares, because of the need to maintain parity with train tickets due to the Travelcard agreement with rail firms.
But figures included in his revised annual budget, published on Wednesday night, show the amount of passenger income TfL expects to receive in 2024/25 has fallen by £128m, from £5,647.1m outlined in his first draft budget in December to £5,519.1m in his latest draft.
Sian Berry, the Green transport spokesperson on the London Assembly, who uncovered the change in TfL’s predicted income, told the Standard: “He is going to cut fares. We know he is going to cut fares from these numbers.”
She said the most likely explanation would be Mr Khan deciding to freeze bus fares at £1.75 – or potentially cut them – or axe the ban on older Londoners using their 60+ Oyster or Freedom Pass before 9am.
But mayoral sources suggested Ms Berry may not be correct in believing that fares were about to be cut.
In addition, an explanation in the updated budget said TfL had updated its “demand forecasts” to include “projections for less reliable factors, such as the commuting frequency of office workers and when it is likely to reach the new normal for travel behaviour”.
This means that the £128m fall income could be caused by fewer journeys rather than cheaper fares.
Ms Berry said it was “outrageous” for Mr Khan to refuse to answer questions about his new budget at Mayor’s Question Time on Thursday. He said he would answer questions at a meeting of the assembly next Thursday.
Ms Berry said: “He could do the same fares freeze that he did between 2016-20. He shouldn’t refuse to answer questions just because he hasn’t issued his press release yet. It’s absolutely outrageous. It’s like a Government minister not telling Parliament stuff. He should be open and honest about this, but he is not being.”
