President Joe Biden is already trailing presumptive GOP candidate Donald Trump in the battleground state of Arizona, different polls have shown throughout the past months.
However, the Republican's lead widens even more when Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) is included in the contention, according to a new survey by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) published by NBC News and Telemundo.
Concretely, the poll showed that Trump's lead widens from six to eight percentage points with RFK Jr. in the equation. The first scenario has Trump with 50% of the vote compared to Biden's 44%. The second one has Trump with 45%, Biden with 37% and RFK Jr. with 11%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein would also take a share, with 3% of the vote.
Another conclusion from the survey is that Biden is quickly losing support among young voters in the state, and that those who are 50 and older are much more motivated to cast their ballots in November than the younger cohort.
"What we've been seeing since 2020 to date is an absolute collapse of Joe Biden's support among younger voters," said Bob Ward, a pollster associated with the Republican party. "It's not only happening in Arizona, but also in many other key states. What's going on with these voters? Will they support Biden in the end? Will they not vote? Will they vote for RFK Jr.? There's a big difference between 2020 and now," he said.
Another passage of the survey showed that about 15% of all respondents don't like Biden nor Trump. Over half of them would support RFK Jr. if able to. Another recent study by Voto Latino also showed that disenchanted Latinos are more likely to consider voting for a third party ticket than a full left-to-right swing.
Voto Latino CEO Maria Teresa Kumar explained that some polls regarding Latinos' perspectives in battleground states show the incumbent having a substantial lead against the former president. However, she says, these studies are lacking one important factor— third parties.
"If you were to look at where Latinos are in battleground states, 59 percent of them are voting for Biden and 39 percent of them are voting for Trump," Kumar said.
"And our poll asked the thornier question, if we open up... including a third party, how does that poll? What we found was really alarming, in the sense that 14 percent of them would vote for a third party, with a majority of the votes being taken away from Biden. So instead of being at 59 percent, he dropped down to 49 percent. And Trump fell only 5 points."
The combination of factors makes this election a "large question mark in terms of who is going to vote" according to Jeffrey Liszt, a Democratic pollster. "All the data we are looking at puts a question mark on whether voters younger than 50 will show up."
"Will they vote for a third party? Will they support Democrats again? Will they stay home? I think what's most important is that voters older than 50 will go to the polls. That's where campaigns should focus," he added.
Immigration rose as the most important issue for Arizona residents, with the poll saying it will define the campaign in the state. Over four in ten voters older than 50 in the state said it was their top concern. The figure rises to 70% among Republicans older than 50 and is 33% for independents of that age. Only 7% of Democrats gave that answer. Over one in three Latinos older than 50 also gave that answer, Ward said.
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