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JED GRAHAM

After Trump Victory, GOP Leads Key Battle For House Control

President-elect Donald Trump has won a second term in surprisingly comfortable fashion. The main question yet to be resolved is whether Republicans will make a clean sweep of the election. The GOP has already seized control of the Senate. There are still 27 competitive House races yet to be decided, but the GOP has a clear, though narrow edge.

The tables below detail the state of the race. The battle for control of the House will determine the extent of tax cuts Trump is able to pass and whether his efforts to roll back parts of President Biden's agenda like the Inflation Reduction Act will have a chance.

Trump Agenda Rests On House Outcome

With or without a clean sweep, Trump will still likely have power to impose broad tariffs and conduct deportations, as he sees fit. But the economic impact of such policies will be harsher if, unlike in his first term, Trump isn't able to juice the economy with tax cuts.

The table below includes 45 House races seen as potentially in play by Sabato's Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

With 27 races still undecided, Republicans need to win 11 to keep control of the House. Current results show the GOP candidate leading in 14 races.

Key House Races
District Rating Outcome  District  Rating Outcome
AK-At Large Leans R        R+4 NJ-7 Leans R        R
AZ-1 Leans R        R+2 NM-2 Leans D        D
AZ-6 Leans R        D+1 NV-3 Likely D        D+<1
CA-13 Leans D        R+3 NY-1 Leans R        R
CA-22 Leans R        R+10 NY-4 Leans D        D+2
CA-27 Leans D        R+2 NY-17 Leans R        R
CA-41 Leans R        D+1 NY-18 Likely D        D
CA-45 Leans R        R+5 NY-19 Leans D        D
CA-47 Leans D        R+1 NY-22 Leans D        D
CA-49 Likely D        D+2 OH-9 Leans D        D+<1
CO-3 Likely R        R+3 OH-13 Leans D        D
CO-8 Leans D        D+2 OR-5 Leans D        D+2
CT-5 Leans D        D PA-7 Leans D        R+1
IA-1 Leans D        R+<1 PA-8 Leans D        R+2
IA-3 Leans R        R PA-10 Leans R        R+2
MD-6 Leans D        D+<1 PA-17 Leans D        D
ME-2 Leans D        D+2 TX-28 Leans D        D
MI-7 Leans R        R TX-34 Leans D        D
MI-8 Leans D        D VA-2 Leans R        R+4
MI-10 Leans R        R VA-7 Leans D        D+2
MT-1 Leans R        R WA-3 Leans R        D+4
NC-1 Leans D        D+2 WI-3 Leans R        R
NE-2 Leans D        R+3

 

House seats Including safe seats
Democrats 201
Republicans 207

12 Stocks Win Big From Trump's White House Victory

Harris Vs. Trump: Counting To 270 Electoral Votes

In the seven so-called swing states, 93 electoral votes were up for grabs. Trump needed to win 50 but has already nailed down 66, with victories in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Key Swing States

Possible Swing States
State Rating     Electoral votes  Outcome
Arizona Leans R 11        R+5
Florida Likely R 30        R
Georgia Leans R 16        R
Iowa Likely R 6        R
Maine Likely D 2        D+8
Michigan Leans D 15        R
Minnesota Likely D 10        D
New Hampshire Likely D 4        D
New Mexico Likely D 5        D
Nevada Leans D 6        R+5
North Carolina Leans R 16        R
Pennsylvania Leans D 19        R
Texas Likely R 40        R
Virginia Likely D 13        D
Wisconsin Leans D 10        R

 

Electoral vote tally (Including safe states)
Harris 224
Trump 292

Battle For The Senate

There were 10 Senate seats seen as potentially in play on Election Day. Because Harris lost, Democrats needed to win eight races to retain their majority. However, Republicans have won the five races that have been called, giving the GOP at least a 52-seat majority that is likely to keep growing.

Key Senate Races
State Rating Outcome 
Arizona Leans D        D+3
Florida Likely R        R
Michigan Leans D        R+<1
Montana Leans R        R
Nebraska Leans R        R
Nevada Leans D        R+<1
Ohio Leans R        R
Pennsylvania Leans D        R+<1
Texas Leans R        R
Wisconsin Leans D        D

 

Senate seats (Including safe seats)
Democrats 44
Republicans 52

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