The Trump administration's latest restrictions on legal immigration could further constrain the U.S. labor supply, reduce tourism and limit population growth, economists and immigration experts warn, as the White House moves on several fronts to make it harder and more expensive for foreigners to enter the country.
The measures announced this week include a worldwide pause on immigrant visa appointments, the cancellation of some tourism and business visas and a proposed $103,265 fee on certain new H-1B petitions.
"It is a further constraint on the supply of labor and some tourism," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told the Washington Post.
Cecilia Esterline, an immigration policy analyst at the Niskanen Center, said even a short pause in immigrant visa appointments "could have serious implications." Visas allocated for fiscal 2026 could go unused if they are not issued before September 30, she said, potentially adding pressure to population growth at a time when immigration has become its primary source.
The proposed H-1B fee could create additional pressure on employers seeking skilled foreign workers. The Department of Homeland Security estimates the surcharge would have a "significant economic impact" on 11,051 small businesses, representing 76% of the small entities it analyzed, Fortune reported.
DHS says the fee is intended to recover federal immigration-related costs and encourage employers to hire Americans. But Britta Glennon, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, told Fortune that previous research suggests restrictions can instead push multinational companies to expand overseas.
"When multinational companies can't access H-1B visas, they actually become much more likely to open a foreign affiliate abroad or expand hiring of their foreign affiliates," Glennon said. "In other words, they offshore jobs."
Smaller companies have fewer alternatives. Glennon said startups that lose access to H-1B workers have shown lower rates of patenting and successful acquisitions or initial public offerings.
The proposal, which faces a 30-day public comment period, follows the administration's unsuccessful attempt last year to impose a $100,000 H-1B payment. A federal judge struck down that measure in June.
