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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Chris Stein

Trump victory not a mandate for radical change, top election forecaster says

a man standing in front of America flag
Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Allentown, Pennsylvania. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Despite Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the presidential election, a political scientist who developed a model that correctly predicted his sweep of battleground states warns that voters have not necessarily given the president-elect a mandate to make radical changes.

In a paper released with little fanfare three weeks before the vote, Cornell University professor of government Peter Enns and his co-authors accurately forecast that Trump would win all seven swing states, based on a model they built that uses state-level presidential approval ratings and indicators of economic health.

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