Will it be Don vs. Ron in 2024 — or Don vs. Ron and the rest of them?
Former President Donald Trump badly trails Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a new head-to-head national poll of Republican 2024 voters.
But Trump runs dead even with DeSantis when other GOP wannabes like former Vice President Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo and others are also included in the options.
The results set up a clear test for DeSantis: If he can clear the field early he has a decent shot at giving Trump a run for his money.
If the primary race turns into a crowded dogfight, it’s advantage Trump.
“The unknown factor is whether DeSantis can maintain this early edge if and when he gets on the campaign trail,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, which conducted the survey.
Just 40% of GOP voters surveyed backed Trump in a hypothetical Florida vs. Florida matchup, with DeSantis scoring an impressive 53%.
DeSantis leads in most categories of Republicans including a 10% lead among those who identify themselves as “very conservative.”
DeSantis holds a more than 2-1 lead over Trump among college-educated GOP voters as well as those who make more than $100,000 a year.
He leads by 7% among the all-important bloc of evangelical Christian voters and by a huge 22% margin among non-evangelicals.
Trump, on the other hand, holds a healthy lead among those who make less than $50,000 a year and seniors, a sign that his hold on the MAGA base remains fairly strong.
Despite the good news for DeSantis, the picture changes dramatically when pollsters include other potential alternative options like Pence, Haley, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and moderates like ex-N.J. Gov. Chris Christie and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.
DeSantis’s lead evaporates in that scenario, with both him and Trump earning the support of just 33% of those surveyed. Pence scores 2%, while Haley and Cruz clock in with 1%.
Trump has also made up significant ground on DeSantis. In December a similar poll had DeSantis up by 39%-to-26% with others trailing far behind.
One number that will surely make mainstream Republicans cringe: 27% of GOP voters would support a potential Trump independent run if he loses the GOP race.
Trump so far is the only announced GOP 2024 candidate. But that is set to change next week when Haley is expected to toss her hat in the ring.
DeSantis insiders say he has all but decided to run for the White House and will likely make an announcement in May or June.
Trump is already lobbing political grenades at DeSantis, accusing him of being too liberal on COVID restrictions and even posting a 2002 photo of him cozying up with teenage girls during a stint as a high school teacher.
But DeSantis has mostly kept his powder dry and resisted the temptation to strike back.
