President Donald Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open. Ship-tracking data says otherwise, and that gap explains why US fuel pumps have seen no relief more than five months after Iran choked off the world's busiest oil route.
Trump declared on social media in July that the strait was open for 'ALL Ship traffic' except Iran's, and he has since cast the US as the 'Guardian Angel' of the waterway. On 6 August he told reporters it was 'sort of open right now'. The numbers moving through it suggest otherwise.
The Claim Versus the Ship Count
Vessel-tracking figures from data firm Kpler showed just eight ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on an early-August day, five tankers and three bulk carriers. Before a US-Israeli strike on Iran on 28 February and Tehran's retaliatory closure, roughly 130 to 140 vessels crossed daily.
Some ships now switch off their transponders, so the true count may run a little higher, but the collapse in traffic is real, and it has held for months. Iran's main oil terminals at Kharg Island have sat idle for days at a time under the blockade, according to maritime-intelligence trackers, a sign of how completely the closure has gripped the region's exports.
Why US Fuel Prices Aren't Falling
About 20% of the world's oil and gas normally moves through the strait, so even a partial shutdown keeps a floor under prices at the pump and across the supply chain. That floor has firmed this week.
US West Texas Intermediate crude settled around $82.13 (£61) a barrel on Monday and Brent closed near $87.72 (£65), both up about 5% as hopes for a quick deal faded. Every jump in crude feeds through to fuel and the cost of shipped goods that American households buy.
The US Energy Information Administration expects most shut-in crude production to return only by early 2027, so any easing at the pump is likely to be gradual rather than sudden. Diplomatic teases have whipsawed markets for weeks, with prices sliding on deal hopes and snapping back when talks stall.
Iran's Conditions for Reopening Hormuz
Tehran has made clear the strait stays shut on its terms. A senior Iranian security official said the waterway would not open until Washington lifts its naval blockade, ends sanctions, releases frozen assets, halts the war, and pays for war damage.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the conditions for reopening 'do not exist' while the US blockade stays in place.
The US imposed that blockade on 13 April after talks in Islamabad broke down.
The Oman Deal That Keeps Slipping
Hope has centred on a separate track between Iran and Oman to agree safe shipping lanes. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said over the weekend that a framework was 'very close', while stressing that managing routes is not the same as reopening the strait.
Trump, for his part, told Axios he was now 'only semi-negotiating' with Tehran and would lean on the blockade rather than fresh airstrikes. The president has floated an imminent breakthrough more than once this year, only for Tehran to hold firm.
Until ships move in the numbers they once did, the word 'open' will keep outrunning the reality on the water, and US drivers will keep paying for the difference.
