Donald Trump said his biggest fear in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran would be regime change that brought in leadership “as bad as the previous person”.
At an Oval Office news conference with the visiting German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the US president was asked by a reporter about the “worst-case scenario” of the risky operation that led to the assassination on Saturday of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“I don’t know if there’s a worst case,” Trump said, expressing confidence about superior US-Israeli force.
“We have them very much beaten militarily, from the military standpoint. They’re still lobbing some missiles,” he said. “They won’t even be able to do that because we’re hitting all of their carriers. We’re hitting all of their missile stock … and we’re knocking out a lot.”
However Trump admitted that hopes Iran would soon turn a page with a less repressive government could easily be dashed.
“I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. We don’t want that to happen. It would probably be the worst,” he said.
“You go through this and then in five years, you realise you put somebody in who was no better. So we’d like to see somebody in there that’s going to bring it back for the people.”
Trump, who had called on the Iranians to rise up en masse against the regime after the military attacks, urged caution as long as the massive state security apparatus was still in place.
“We’ll see what happens with the people. You know, they have their chance. And we’ve said, don’t do it yet,” he said. “If you’re going to go out and protest, don’t do it yet. It’s very dangerous out there.”
Trump also asserted that Iran was going to attack before he did, walking back comments by the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, on Monday that Israel triggered the war.
“I think they were going to attack first, and I didn’t want that to happen. So, if anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand,” he said.
Turning to Europe’s disparate reactions to the military campaign, Trump threatened to cut off all trade with Spain after the Nato ally refused Washington permission for two jointly operated bases in southern Spain to be used in US strikes on Iran.
“Spain has been terrible,” Trump said, adding that he had told the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, to “cut off all dealings” with the European country.
“We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain.”
Trump’s threat came hours after Spain’s foreign minister had played down the chances of any retaliatory actions.
“The bases used jointly with the US are Spanish sovereign bases that operate within the framework of the treaty with the United States, and it is within that premise – of our sovereignty and the treaty framework – that they can be used,” José Manuel Albares told reporters.
“Therefore, there is nothing strange or surprising about it, and we do not expect any consequences whatsoever.”
Trump also attacked Spain once again for refusing to accept Nato’s proposal for member states to increase their defence spending to 5% of their GDP, in critical remarks echoed by Merz when he was asked.
“Everybody was enthusiastic about it – Germany, everybody – and Spain didn’t do it,” Trump said. “And now Spain said we can’t use their bases – and that’s OK. We could use their bases; if we wanted, we could just fly in and use it [sic]. Nobody’s going to tell us not to use it. But we don’t have to. But they were unfriendly.”
Spanish government sources pushed back at Trump’s remarks, saying Madrid “makes a significant contribution to the defence of European territory” and is a key trade partner.
“If the US administration wishes to review this relationship, it must do so respecting the autonomy of private companies, international law, and bilateral agreements between the European Union and the United States,” the sources said.
Trump lashed out again at the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, who has not joined the US-Israeli attack but did let US forces use UK bases.
“I’m not happy with the UK. It’s taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land,” Trump said. “This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with.”
Merz, whose good rapport with Trump has endured despite confusion over his on-again, off-again tariff policies, had refrained from criticising Operation Epic Fury before his departure. He is the first European leader to visit Trump since the war began.
During his Oval Office audience, Merz underlined common ground with Trump, while attempting to pull the conversation back to Ukraine’s security as Europe’s priority.
“We are on the same page in terms of getting this terrible regime in Tehran away. And we will talk about the day after, what will happen then if they are out,” he said of the Iranian government.
“And we have to talk about Ukraine. There are too many bad guys in this world, actually. And this is an issue we have to talk about because we all want to see this war coming to an end as soon as possible. But Ukraine has to preserve its territory and their security interests.”
