Yesterday, Trump postponed his plan to impose massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as a result of deals in which the two countries largely promised to do things they were already doing, actions that are highly unlikely to curb the fentanyl crisis that Trump used as a pretext for his actions.
But this doesn't necessarily mean that the crisis is over. After all, Trump only postponed the tariffs by 30 days. He hasn't cancelled the plan to impose them entirely. What he does after the thirty day deadline expires remains to be seen. In addition, Trump's tariff ambitions may not be limited to Canada and Mexico. He also threatens to impose them on the European Union and others. Moreover, even just threatening tariffs only to pull back after extorting concessions on other issues, causes real harm, by disrupting the continuity and legal certainty on which trade relationships depend. A key purpose of free trade agreements - like the USMCA deal that Trump himself signed with Canada and Mexico in 2018, only to violate it now - is to establish certainty and forestall opportunistic imposition of trade restrictions.
