WASHINGTON — Former President Donald Trump's dominant role looks to have limited the Republican Party's ability to take full advantage of a midterm election opportunity.
But Trump's demonstrated inability to walk away quietly could hamstring the party for the next two years and beyond as he continues to exercise outsized sway over the GOP base.
As vote-counting continued Wednesday morning, Republicans still had a chance to win both chambers of Congress.
Republicans, though in position to take the House, were still sweating it out Wednesday morning and would need to hold their narrow leads in many of the remaining races to eke out a narrow win. Races in California, where Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has focused attention, could prove decisive.
Paradoxically, a small majority for Republicans would likely give Trump more leverage in Congress, as McCarthy would have to depend on continued support from Trump acolytes such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to maintain power.
The Senate was locked in a 48-48 tie, with remaining races in Georgia, Arizona, New Mexico and Wisconsin to decide the outcome. If neither candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in Georgia, the race would go to a Dec. 6 runoff like the one that decided Senate control in 2020. A 50-50 split in the Senate would give Democrats control with Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote.
The close races for control of Congress defy history. The party that holds the White House usually absorbs big midterm election losses. President Joe Biden's low approval in polls, fueled by persistent inflation, made sizeable Republican gains even more likely, at least on paper.
"Definitely not a Republican wave, that's for darn sure," Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said Tuesday night on NBC as he predicted a narrow win for Republicans in the Senate.
The combination of Trump's low popularity, the generally weak general-election performance of the candidates he endorsed, the aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection that he inspired and the Supreme Court's decision to overturn the right to an abortion this year appear to have drawn Democrats closer than expected. Exit polls conducted by media organizations showed two-thirds of independent voters hold an unfavorable view of the former president.
The latest blow to Republicans: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a top target in the swing state of Michigan, was declared the winner overnight.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, another Democrat, also won her race, defeating Trump-backed candidate Tudor Dixon. Michigan voters also approved the most high-profile ballot measure to protect abortion rights.
The results highlight one of the Republican Party's biggest disappointments. Trump attacked Whitmer relentlessly. Michigan was a key part of the 2016 coalition that propelled Trump's surprising victory over Hillary Clinton. The state's historic ties to manufacturing and large population of white working-class voters gave the party hope that the state would trend red as the GOP moved further toward Trump's brand of populism aimed at capturing economic and cultural anxiety.
But Biden won the state back in 2020, stanching the party's losses in the upper Midwest.
National exit polls this year showed inflation was a top concern among voters. But abortion ranked second. That, and the relative weakness of Trump-backed candidates, helped Democrats stay in the fight.
The Republicans' loss of a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, another northern industrial state, could prove the most consequential if Democrats keep the chamber. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeated Dr. Mehmet Oz, a television doctor and first-time candidate backed by Trump. Fetterman, still recovering from the effects of a stroke, painted the untested Oz as an elite carpetbagger.
Many of the gubernatorial candidates Trump backed also lost or were in danger of losing as of Wednesday morning.
The exception was Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican who won reelection in a landslide. DeSantis is seen as Trump's biggest threat for the 2024 presidential nomination. But even if party leaders prefer DeSantis, Trump has said he will run again. Opinion polls, at least for now, show him as the prohibitive favorite to capture the party's nomination.
