Three years after leaving the White House, Donald Trump is making a stunning comeback in the world of politics. Despite being a one-term president who faced impeachment and legal challenges, Trump's popularity among Republican voters is rapidly growing, as evidenced by his success in the first two 2024 nominating contests and his strong polling numbers in upcoming states.
When Trump departed from Washington, D.C., the nation's capital was still grappling with the aftermath of the violence incited by his supporters at the U.S. Capitol. He was widely shunned by his own party, with some members of his Cabinet even discussing the possibility of invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. However, instead of fading into obscurity, Trump continued to wield influence, turning legal challenges and controversy into a winning strategy.
The journey to Trump's potential nomination for a third straight presidential election highlights several key factors. Firstly, it underscores the missed opportunity by the Republican Party to move beyond him, as critics failed to coalesce around a single alternative. Secondly, it reveals how Trump successfully tapped into the grievances of his supporters, portraying himself as a victim of a rigged system. Lastly, it demonstrates the effectiveness of his campaign's efforts to secure endorsements, build relationships, and manipulate delegate allocation rules.
Trump's resurgence began with a trip to East Palestine, Ohio, in February 2023, where he was greeted with enthusiasm by residents demanding answers after a hazardous chemical spill. This event reminded people of Trump's appeal as an outsider fighting against big business and Washington. While his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, didn't visit the town at the time, Trump used the opportunity to draw a contrast between himself and the establishment.
Another turning point came when Trump faced a series of criminal charges, which included mishandling classified documents and conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Instead of diminishing his popularity, the charges reinforced the belief among his supporters that the system was rigged against him. Democrats' attempts to hold him accountable only deepened the loyalty of his base, resulting in a surge of donations and increased poll numbers.
Notably, Trump's fiercest competition for the GOP nomination initially appeared to be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Fresh from a resounding re-election victory, DeSantis was seen as a rising star within the Republican Party. However, DeSantis chose to delay his campaign announcement, giving Trump a six-month head start. Trump's team capitalized on the opportunity by launching early attack ads that targeted DeSantis, questioning his previous stance on Social Security cuts. Ultimately, DeSantis could not match the fervor and emotional connection that Trump elicited from voters.
Throughout the campaign, Trump acted like a front-runner, declining invitations to multicandidate events and avoiding debates. This strategy prevented his lower-polling rivals from gaining attention or momentum. At the same time, Trump worked tirelessly behind the scenes, cultivating relationships, securing endorsements, and shaping delegate allocation rules in his favor.
The loyalty of Trump's base also played a significant role in his ascendancy. His campaign rewarded volunteers with perks, such as VIP tickets to rallies and personal phone calls of appreciation. This dedication and grassroots support were vital, especially in states like Iowa, where historically low caucus attendance was further diminished by freezing temperatures. Trump's loyal supporters helped him secure a resounding victory there, leaving his rivals, including DeSantis and Nikki Haley, to focus on attacking each other rather than him.
As Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary race, his path to the nomination seems increasingly inevitable. However, his resurgence raises concerns about the future direction of the Republican Party and its ability to move beyond Trump's divisive brand of politics. The implications for American democracy are profound, as Trump has demonstrated how a candidate can turn legal challenges and controversy into a winning strategy, magnifying divisions within the country.
As Trump progresses toward the possibility of becoming the Republican nominee for a third time, it is clear that his influence on the party and American politics extends far beyond his term in the White House. Whether he ultimately succeeds in his presidential ambitions remains to be seen, but his journey thus far serves as a reminder of the enduring appeal he holds among a significant portion of Republican voters.
