Trump’s immigration crackdown has reduced employment in key sectors and failed to create new opportunities for US-born workers, according to a new national study. The research finds that stricter enforcement has led to fewer undocumented immigrants working and, in some cases, fewer jobs for Americans as well.
The study, released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, analyses labour market data alongside Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests between 2023 and 2025. It focuses on how increased enforcement during the second Trump administration has affected both immigrant and US-born workers across different regions.
Employment falls among undocumented workers
The report found that areas with a sharp rise in ICE arrests saw a drop in employment among undocumented immigrants who remained in the country. The decline is linked to what researchers describe as a “chilling effect,” where fear of enforcement discourages people from going to work.
Overall employment among likely undocumented immigrants fell by about 4% in sectors such as agriculture, construction, manufacturing and wholesale. The impact was stronger among men, who account for most ICE arrests, with both employment levels and hours worked declining.
The study also found that the effect builds over time as information about enforcement spreads within communities, leading to sustained reductions in labour participation.
No job gains for US-born workers
A central claim behind stricter immigration enforcement is that it opens up jobs for local workers. The study does not support this argument. It states, “we find no evidence of positive spillover effects to US-born workers,” and adds that “US-born workers who work in immigrant-heavy sectors are harmed.”
Across the overall US-born workforce, the study finds no meaningful increase in employment or working hours. The data rules out any significant rise in job participation in sectors most affected by enforcement.
Some American workers see losses
The report identified negative effects among certain groups of US-born workers. Men with a high school education or less, especially those working in sectors with high immigrant participation, saw a decline in employment.
The study explained that immigrant and US-born workers often perform complementary roles rather than competing for the same jobs. When undocumented workers reduce their participation, businesses cut back overall operations, which lowers demand for all workers rather than shifting jobs to US-born employees.
There is also no evidence that employers raised wages to attract US-born workers to fill these roles, indicating that firms did not respond to labour shortages by increasing pay but instead reduced hiring.
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Wider impact beyond arrests
The research showed that the impact of enforcement goes beyond those directly detained. For every ICE arrest, about six undocumented workers stopped working due to fear of enforcement, pointing to a broader effect on labour supply.
The study also noted that enforcement increased unevenly across regions, allowing researchers to compare areas with higher and lower levels of activity. Areas with larger increases in arrests saw stronger declines in employment outcomes.
What the findings suggest
The findings indicate that stricter immigration enforcement may reduce overall employment in key sectors rather than shifting jobs to US-born workers. The study provides national evidence that the policy may be contracting labour demand instead of redistributing it.
By linking enforcement data with worker-level outcomes, the report adds to the ongoing debate on immigration policy and its economic impact. It suggests that the effects extend beyond immigration control and influence broader labour market conditions.
