President Donald Trump’s ascent to the White House stunned Washington’s national security establishment and unleashed frantic debates over the fate of the liberal international order, U.S. hegemony, and the future of democracy. Nervous allies wondered if Trump would abandon NATO, start a war with North Korea, or demolish the international trading system.
Four years on, how do those early predictions and worries hold up? Alliances are still standing (if frayed), America’s hard power remains unrivaled (for now), and Trump steered well clear of any costly new military blunders like the war in Iraq or the 2011 intervention in Libya. Even some of Trump’s fiercest critics acknowledge that the administration has notched some important foreign-policy successes—most notably on China and in the Middle East.
