About a million Floridians could be removed from the United States if former President Donald Trump wins the elections and implements his promised mass deportation plan, according to a new report.
Conducted by the American Immigration Council (AIC), the study claims the measure could affect about one in every 20 residents of Florida, a state with a notably high proportion of undocumented immigrants compared to the national average.
Florida's undocumented population accounts for about 5% of the states' total residents, compared to 3.3% nationwide, as reported by the immigration advocacy group. In fact, the state's existing anti-immigration law, Senate Bill 1718 (SB 1718), has already led to an exodus of undocumented workers and noticeable labor shortages.
SB 1718, which went into effect one year ago, requires private companies with 25 or more employees to use the federal E-Verify system to check new hires' legal status, prompting many workers without documentation to leave.
Within months of the law's enactment, businesses across various sectors, including agriculture, construction, hospitality, and food service, began reporting severe worker shortages. Construction projects stalled, fruit was left to rot in fields, and restaurants and hotels laid off staff while putting up "Help Wanted" signs. Rental units stood empty, and businesses struggled to keep customers. Even Walt Disney World faced challenges finding cast members. Some state representatives who had initially backed the legislation publicly urged immigrants not to leave.
The Florida Policy Institute projected that SB 1718 could cost the state's economy $12.6 billion in its first year. If Florida's population were to shrink by around 5% under this plan, the significant undocumented immigrants make to the economy as taxpayers and consumers would take a new hit. In 2022 alone, undocumented immigrants contributed about $70 billion in local, state, and federal taxes. Removing them, the report says, would deliver "a major shock to the U.S. labor force" and further strain industries already facing labor shortages.
Key social programs, like Social Security and Medicare, would also lose billions in tax contributions, making it difficult to sustain benefits, especially as the population aged 65 and older continues to grow, the report says.
Nationwide, Trump's plan would target 13.3 million undocumented immigrants if he were re-elected. Implementing the policy would cost around $315 billion, though the researchers describe this is a "highly conservative" figure. Deporting millions of undocumented residents could lead to severe economic disruptions, with a potential 6.8% drop in the annual U.S. GDP and losses in tax revenue used for essential services, according to the report.
Using Census Bureau data and other federal statistics, the AIC report emphasizes that most undocumented immigrants have lived in the U.S. for over a decade, establishing families, careers, and community connections.
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