President Trump plans to announce before Christmas that the Gaza peace process is moving into its second phase and to unveil the new governance structure for the enclave, according to two U.S. officials and a Western source directly involved in the process.
Why it matters: The fragile ceasefire in Gaza is the biggest foreign policy achievement of Trump's second term so far, and his administration wants to proceed to the second phase to avoid sliding back into war.
State of play: While the ceasefire has not broken down entirely, Israeli strikes have killed 366 Palestinians and Hamas attacks have killed several Israeli soldiers since it came into force on Oct. 11.
- One key element of phase one — the release by Hamas of all live and deceased hostages — is nearly complete. The remains of one deceased hostage have yet to be returned, and an Israeli delegation met with Qatari and Egyptian mediators on Thursday to discuss how to recover them.
- Under U.S. pressure, Israel has agreed to open the Rafah crossing and allow Palestinians to leave Gaza for Egypt. Israel, Egypt and the U.S. are discussing security arrangements that will allow Palestinians to return in the opposite direction.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet President Trump in the U.S. before the end of the month to discuss the next phase of the Gaza deal. Trump told Netanyahu during a phone call on Monday that he expects him to be a "better partner" on Gaza.
Driving the news: The second phase of the deal involves Israel pulling out of more of Gaza, an international stabilization force (ISF) deploying to Gaza, and a new governing structure coming into force, including the Trump-led Board of Peace.
- The UN Security Council recently authorized both the ISF and the board. U.S. officials say they're in the last stages of putting together the international force and the new governance structure for Gaza, which they hope to roll out in two or three weeks.
- "All of the different elements are pretty well-advanced. It's all moving ahead, and the aim is to announce it before people break for the holidays," a Western source directly involved in the process said.
Zoom in: Sitting atop the governing structure will be the Trump-led Board of Peace, which will include approximately 10 leaders from Arab and Western countries, the U.S. officials say.
- Below that will be an international executive board that will include former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, Trump advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, and additional senior officials from countries represented in the Board of Peace.
- A Palestinian technocratic government will operate under the executive board. It will include 12–15 Palestinians who have management and business experience and are not affiliated with Hamas, Fatah or other Palestinian party or faction.
- A source with direct knowledge of the vetting process said the initial list included 25 individuals, around half of whom have been ruled out. Some of the candidates currently live in Gaza, while others have in the past and would return to serve in the new government.
- The U.S. is in the final stages of achieving consensus with Israel, the Palestinian Authority and countries in the region on the composition of the technocratic government, the sources said.
Meanwhile, countries including Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Egypt and Turkey are willing to contribute troops to the ISF.
- The force is to deploy in the part of Gaza currently controlled by the Israeli military. U.S. officials said that will allow further Israeli withdrawal from these areas.
- Trump's plan calls for the ISF to work closely with the technocratic government and in coordination with Israel and Egypt.
Behind the scenes: The sources say the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and Turkey are negotiating with Hamas on an agreement under which the group would step back from governing Gaza and begin a process of disarming.
- Under the proposal, Hamas would first lay down its heavy weapons and then start the process of decommissioning its light weapons.
- The Western source involved in the talks said Egypt and Qatar are optimistic they'll reach an agreement with Hamas, but Netanyahu is not. "Bibi is skeptical but committed to give it a chance to work," the source said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.
What to watch: The U.S. and the mediators want to get all the elements in place for an agreement on phase two, with the endorsement of all the countries in the region, and then put it to Hamas to accept.
- "The equation will be IDF out of Gaza but Hamas out of power," the Western source said.
- "The big question is will Hamas agree to disarm and allow the new government to take power and govern the place. They can't be in government directly or indirectly through their weapons. The moment of truth will come in the next few weeks."
What they are saying: A White House official told Axios that announcements relating to the Board of Peace and further implementation of the Gaza peace plan will be made in the coming weeks.
- "The Trump administration and our partners are working diligently to implement President Trump's historic 20-point plan that will deliver security and prosperity to Gazans and the broader region," the White House official said.
