Recent polls suggest that former president Donald Trump could win the youth voter by a comfortable margin in the November elections, a scenario that seemed "unthinkable" earlier in the cycle, according to a new Axios report.
"Former president Trump appears to be making stunning inroads with young voters as he stakes out youth-friendly positions that defy GOP orthodoxy and contradict past statements," the analysis says, noting that "no Republican has won young Americans since 1988."
Statistics showing a shifting trend among voters in their twenties when comparing this election cycle to those of 2020 and 2016.
On the one hand, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters shows President Joe Biden's lead has significantly narrowed over the past months, with the incumbent having just a 2-point lead over Trump among those between 18-29. Moreover, a recent Quinnipiac survey has Trump ahead by a point among registered voters between 18-34.
CNN exit polling showed that Biden won the 18-29-year-old vote by 24 percentage points in 2020, and that Hillary Clinton won it by 19 points in 2016.
The article highlights three examples of how Trump is adopting policies that appeal to the aspirations and concerns of younger voters, even if they don't quite align with the conservative narrative that has historically defined the GOP.
First, there is TikTok. Trump initially proposed banning the social media app during his presidency. In 2020 he signed a presidential executive order attempting to ban the platform for its links to China, an initiative that was ultimately blocked by US courts.
However, the former president later surprised "conservative China hawks" by changing his stance, criticizing recent attempts to curb the app, saying it would empower Facebook owner Meta and opposing such action earlier this year. In early June, he joined the app, gathering in just days over ten times as many followers as Biden, according to a BBC article.
"The electoral upside of that stance is clear. TikTok is popular among younger users, and support for a ban grows as the age of respondents increases," Axios underscores.
Bitcoin is the second example, as Trump has recently embraced the cryptocurrency world. Axios points out he has promoted NFTs, vowed to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined bitcoin as a way to help America become "energy dominant."
This stands in contrast to the Biden administration's attitude toward the industry. "SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has become one of crypto's biggest villains," the report notes.
During his presidency, Trump stated that he was "not a fan" of crypto - which is most often embraced by young men.
Third are Trump's tax promises. Axios points out that Trump might have "singled out a new constituency this week by vowing to get rid of tip taxation" at a Las Vegas rally. .
This decision may have been targeted at career service-industry workers and Latinos in particular, but young restaurant and bar workers nationwide might take notice.
Younger Latino voters, who comprise 20% of all Hispanic eligible voters, are poised to play a pivotal role in the 2024 election cycle, according to recent polling by UnidosUS.
In 2024, an estimated 17.5 million Latinos are expected to vote, with 1 in 5 casting their ballot in a presidential election for the first time. When considering new voters since the 2016 Trump/Clinton matchup, the share of young voters rises to 38%.
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