Trump Media stock is surging over the past month, shooting up 198%.
The recent catapult comes after the stock tumbled to an all-time low of $12.15 on Sept. 23. The stock is now trading at $36.30 a share.
Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) is the holding company that owns Truth Social, the upstart social media platform that former President Donald Trump founded when he was kicked off mainstream sites in the wake of the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and his refusal to accept that he lost the 2020 presidential election. The stock trades on Nasdaq under the symbol DJT, reflecting Donald John Trump’s initials.
Despite its recent rally, TMTG’s financial performance has been lackluster. In the first half of this year, the company reported losses of $344 million on revenues of $1.6 million. However, over the last few weeks the stock's momentum could have attracted interest from momentum-based investors, eager to cash in on its growth.
“The extremely high volume of trading relative to the public float suggests that there are many traders, both individuals and institutions, following short-term momentum strategies,” said University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter. “These traders contribute to volatility, in that when the tide turns, many of them move in the same direction. A drop in the stock price leads others to sell, driving the stock down. When the stock rises, they buy, driving the price higher.”
There are a bevy of colorful names for short-term momentum investors. So-called sharks trade aggressively in search of fast profits; piranhas describe shivers of such traders. Cheetahs are high-frequency traders, and those on the bandwagon follow trades after they start.
October trading volumes for TMTG have been astronomical, with hundreds of millions of shares changing hands. Last week more than 278 million shares were traded on the market, according to Bloomberg data. The week before, 194 million shares were traded.
Nonetheless, it is impossible to divorce TMTG’s stock surge from Trump’s political fortunes. The stock often trades independently of fundamentals related to its business operations.
“The surge in DJT corresponds to the increase in the polling numbers for Donald Trump winning the presidential election,” Ritter said.
In recent weeks, election polls show the narrow lead Vice President Kamala Harris had over Trump slipping. The race now appears virtually tied, with Trump having a slight edge in certain forecasts. On Monday, The Economist announced its election forecast had Trump with a 54% chance of winning the race. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, said that while the race is a 50/50 toss up, he sees Trump winning.
TMTG has been likened to a meme stock, meaning it trades on reasons that have nothing to do with business and financial metrics. Instead it often functions as a means for people to demonstrate their political support for Trump.
In an SEC filing from June, TMTG estimated it had about 620,000 shareholders, “the vast majority of whom are everyday retail investors.” The influence of certain committed investors, many of whom are Trump superfans, doesn't always reflect the true health of the company because they’re often operating in echo chambers, according to George Kailas, CEO of Prospero.ai, an online trading platform.
“They surround themselves with Trumpers, boot people from online communities that fail the purity tests,” Kailas said. “Then they hold the belief that he couldn’t possibly lose because they think most everyone agrees with them.”
