As of Feb. 27, 2024, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market shows former President Donald Trump (R) leading at $0.46, followed by President Joe Biden (D) at $0.40, and California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) at $0.11. Trump has held the lead in this market since February 9. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place.
The Democratic presidential primary market shows Biden leading at $0.74, followed by Newsom at $0.14. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
Trump leads the Republican presidential primary market at $0.91. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
PredictIt is an online political futures market in which users purchase shares relating to the outcome of political events using real money. Each event, such as an election, has a number of contracts associated with it, each correlating to a different outcome. Services such as PredictIt can be used to gain insight into the outcome of elections.
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