The 45th President of the United States has seen his support among Republican voters grow in the midst of and despite rumors of his pending arrest in New York.
“Trump has increased his standing as favorite in a prospective GOP primary; (Florida Gov. Ron) DeSantis is second favorite and gaining ground if Trump does not run,” a new poll out of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University shows.
According to a survey of nearly 3,000 registered voters conducted last Wednesday and Thursday, former President Donald Trump’s lead against fellow conservatives improved four points from February, to 50%, in a field including more than half-a-dozen declared and undeclared candidates.
Pollsters asked voters to make their choice after the former president, on March 17, used his Truth Social media account to warn supporters that New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg would soon arrest him.
Trump’s arrest did not occur last Tuesday as he publicly predicted. A grand jury convened to consider illegalities surrounding allegations of a hush-money payment to a porn star mistress ahead of the 2016 election has yet to decide whether or not to file charges.
David Greenberg, a historian at Rutgers University, told the Herald that half of Trump’s staying power is a matter of tribalism and is indicative of our particularly partisan times.
The other half is the seeming source of his woes.
“Attacks on him can be interpreted as coming from the very institutions he’s shown contempt for – the law, the media, Democrats, other politicians. For many people, the attacks only enhance his status as a person whom the established powers want to take down, and that gives them reason to rally around him,” he said.
DeSantis, who has not announced his candidacy but is widely expected to do so after his state’s Legislature wraps their business this summer, comes in a distant second at 24% support, with former Vice President Mike Pence and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Healey earning 7% and 5% respectively.
Trump would also win a head-to-head race against just the Sunshine State’s governor, 56% to 44%, or Haley alone, 70% to 30%.
“It is a marvel that here is a man who’s been impeached twice, who’s been caught lying brazenly about all kinds of things, who treats not only his enemies but his own team with contempt and ridicule, who was voted out of office by a solid margin, who was found to have engaged in dubious dealings with an enemy superpower, who’s exhibited contempt for American democracy and its institutions — all of this and he remains the Republican front-runner for 2024,” Greenberg said.
The former governor of South Carolina has announced her candidacy and will be in New Hampshire next week for a pair of campaign stops. DeSantis is scheduled to be in the Granite state on April 14 for a state party fundraiser.
Though 57% of GOP voters polled think Trump will be the nominee, of those who did not, 41% prefer DeSantis over any other candidate, though 31% of this group reported themselves as unsure.
Most Democratic voters would prefer President Joe Biden be the nominee, with Vice President Kamala Harris a distant second or first in a field absent the president.
Either of them, according to those polled, would lose to Trump.
“Trump wins a hypothetical horse race against Biden by +4 points and against Harris by +10 points,” pollsters said.
Most voters, 58%, continue to have a poor view of the direction of the country and the state of the economy, figures that are unchanged from February’s survey.
“Perception of the direction of the country is flat; just over a third of voters say we are on the right track,” pollsters wrote. “Perception of the economy is also flat, with only a third saying it is on the right track.”
Price increases and inflation continue to be top issues for voters, with 35% saying the cost of everyday goods is their most pressing concern and 28% saying the economy keeps them up at night. About 23% of respondents said immigration was their chief worry, with another 19% and 17% named crime and drugs or guns as their priorities, respectively.
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