Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a dominant lead over the rest of the 2024 GOP presidential field in Iowa, 23 percentage points ahead of second-place Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll poll of likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted as Trump was hit last week in Georgia with his most recent indictment and shows that his lead over DeSantis only increased after his latest charges. In the days that the poll was in the field before Trump's Georgia indictment, Trump led DeSantis by 18 points, a margin that grew to 25 points among respondents surveyed after the indictment was announced. Overall, Sixty-five percent of those polled said they don’t believe Trump has committed serious crimes.
Forty-two percent of respondents said Trump is their first choice out of 14 different presidential candidates, while 19 percent picked DeSantis. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is in third place with 9 percent while former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence both sit at 6 percent.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie trails further behind at 5 percent, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 4 percent. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is at 2 percent and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd has 1 percent.
Businessperson Ryan Binkley, conservative radio host Larry Elder, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessperson Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez all sit below 1 percent in the new poll.
Twenty percent of those polled chose DeSantis as their No. 2 pick, making him the top second-choice candidate in the poll. Scott is in second with 15 percent and Ramaswamy with 12 percent.
Still, the contest may be “closer than it may first seem,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll. Sixty-three percent of respondents said they support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses while the 61 percent of those surveyed said the same for DeSantis.
The poll of 406 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted Aug. 13-17 in English and by telephone. The survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.
