President Donald Trump’s midterm convention in Texas earlier this month was intended to rally his Republican base ahead of the fast-approaching midterm elections but, in fact, appears to have given Democrats a major boost.
The first-of-its-kind event in Dallas sought to reinvigorate Republican voters ahead of the November 3 midterms that will decide control of the House and Senate.
The president raved about the event’s success as “a solidly sold out winner for Republicans” in a Truth Social post — despite reports of many empty seats.
Polling numbers in the weeks since have also painted a vastly different picture. RealClearPolitics’ Generic Congressional Vote, which averages results of other major polls, showed Democrats at 50.5 percent and Republicans trailing at 42.1 percent Tuesday.
It’s a steep increase from September 7 - two days before the convention - when Democrats held 48.1 percent compared to Republicans’ 42.3 percent.
Support for Democratic candidates has grown significantly over the past month. More than half of registered voters (53 percent) said they would vote for Democrats if the election were today, while only 41 percent prefer Republicans, according to a September 23 poll from PBS News/NPR/Marist.
Independent voters, who often decide competitive races, favor Democrats by a margin of 25 points, according to the same poll.
The survey also revealed that roughly seven in 10 voters consider Trump a factor - one way or another - in how they will vote in the midterms.
Both Democrats and Republicans are vying for seats in Texas, a long reliably red state. That includes Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, who are locked in an unexpectedly close race for the U.S. Senate seat. On Monday, Talarico was leading Paxton by four points, according to the Big Data Poll survey.
Meanwhile, 68 percent of independent voters said the convention made no impact on their excitement to vote, according to a The Hill/Emerson poll from September 17.
The convention did galvanize Trump’s own party, with 59 percent of Texas Republican voters saying that the event made them more excited to vote. Fifty-three percent of Texas Democratic voters, however, were also more eager to cast their ballot following the convention.
During the event, Trump, alongside numerous other speakers, devoted much of their time to denouncing Democrats as extreme left-wing figures who pose a threat to the country. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that Democrats are trying to make the U.S. a “socialist hellscape.”
The president made other extreme efforts to sway voters during the convention. He proposed a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every American, should Republicans maintain control of both houses of Congress - and amounting to a total cost of $1.25 trillion.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 1,143 Americans found that the pitch was not popular, even among Trump supporters. The poll found that 63 percent disapproved of the proposal, including four in 10 Republicans and nine in 10 Democrats.
Trump also vowed that oil prices would decrease “as soon as we win the war in Iran,” which he predicted would conclude “right after Election Day”, even though the conflict shows few signs of resolution.
Dissatisfaction among Republicans has grown since Trump launched his war on Iran in February. The conflict has caused gasoline and diesel prices to increase, and 51 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost-of-living crisis, according to a recent Reuters/ Ipsos.
Issues like the Iran war and the high cost of living are at the top of mind for most Americans, and likely played a role in causing Trump’s approval rating to drop to just 32 percent — the lowest of his political career, according to Reuters/Ipsos.
