Donald Trump filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run for Republican nomination for president in 2024 Tuesday.
The filing came shortly before Trump was to speak at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.
Trump finds himself facing multiple legal and political problems as he makes his third try for the presidency.
Unlike in 2020, he also faces potentially strong competition from a one-time backer who has become a bitter rival.
Among the former president's legal problems are:
- A Department of Justice probe of the theft of dozens of top secret documents from the White House that were recovered during a search of the Mar-a-Lago residence.
- A criminal trial of the Trump Organization in New York on a long-running tax fraud scheme.
- A subpoena from a House committee investigating the fatal Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters following a speech by Trump.
- A Georgia grand jury probe of Trump's attempts to interfere in the state's 2020 election.
Trump's political problems are also on the rise.
Trump was weakened by the mid-term elections. Wide-spread predictions of a "red wave" proved wrong, with Democrats maintaining control of the U.S. Senate and likely to lose the House by only a handful of seats.
Many of the candidates backed by Trump in the mid-terms lost, raising doubts about his ability to motivate his base to beat people he opposes.
A third issue arises in Georgia, where a runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat is slated for early December. By announcing, Trump immediately becomes a central issue in the race between Hershel Walker, who Trump backs against the incumbent, Sen. Raphael Warnock. Although control of the Senate is not in doubt, an extra seat would make life easier for Democrats by avoiding evenly divided committees.
The Republican leadership in the Senate and House are under attack in the wake of the poor mid-term results as well, with some analysts describing the party as on the verge of a civil war.
Can Trump Win?
Notwithstanding the baggage Trump is carrying, two questions arise. Does he have any chance to win, and if he does win, what will his economic policies be?
He certainly has a chance to gain the Republican nomination. Polls show Trump ahead of the man likely to be his main GOP competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
A survey from Morning Consult in the days preceding the mid-term elections (Nov. 2-7) showed Trump leading DeSantis 48% to 26% in a hypothetical match-up. Just three months earlier, Trump led 57% to 18%. DeSantis,,who Trump recently dubbed "De-Sanctimonious," likely gained further ground in the wake of his blowout re-election win in the mid-terms.
DeSantis has received a slew of contributions from wealthy businessman. Billionaire investment titan Ken Griffin gave him $5 million for his gubernatorial campaign. And Tesla CEO Elon Musk has indicated a preference for the Florida governor as well.
So Trump will have to keep a tight lock on his base of largely disaffected white males to fight back the DeSantis challenge. Republican pollsters estimate that 30% to 40% of Republican voters are dedicated Trump supporters.
That amount could be more significant than it appears, as Trump won multiple primaries in 2016 with less than 40% of the vote.
Republican Opposition
But plenty of prominent Republicans, such as ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, have made clear their opposition to Trump. And his former Vice President, Mike Pence, has belatedly sought to distance himself, complaining that Trump put him in danger on Jan. 6.
It seems like the smart money should be on DeSantis. His relatively steady demeanor and appeal to reasonable-minded voters would appear to give him a major advantage over an imbalanced Trump, who is flailing this way and that at anyone in his path.
If Trump is lucky enough to get by DeSantis, the odds could again favor his opponent, thanks to Trump’s extremism.
President Joe Biden leads Trump 45% to 41% in a hypothetical match-up, according to an Emerson College poll from Oct. 30-Nov. 1, before the mid-terms. The survey has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Economic Policy
If Trump somehow wins the presidency, what kind of economic policy would result? Probably one with the same kind of chaos he shoed in office.
Trump’s only legislative accomplishment on the economic side during his tenure was a tax cut. Theoretically he could push through another one if Republicans regain control both houses of Congress in 2024.
Trump might like to increase spending, but that would likely be difficult to pass through Congress.
Other policies likely wouldn’t change that much from the Biden administration. The Democrat hasn’t exactly been a beacon for free trade. And tension with China has continued and perhaps worsened, though Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping made nice Monday.
If history is any guide, Trump would pound on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, just as he did during his previous presidency. And the Fed would likely ignore him once again, until it believes that lowering rates is appropriate.
