In a race against time, Republican candidates Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are scrambling to close the substantial gap between them and current front-runner Donald Trump. With just 11 days remaining until the caucuses, both candidates will be participating in back-to-back town halls from Des Moines, Iowa, tonight, hoping to win over Republican voters in this crucial state.
Recent polls consistently show Trump holding a commanding lead in Iowa, with no signs of wavering. The Des Moines Register poll, considered the premier poll in the state, reveals a remarkable trend of Trump's increasing dominance. In October, he polled at 43%, but currently boasts an overwhelming majority of 51%. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis has stayed within the margin of error, with little movement since October. Nikki Haley, on the other hand, has remained stable throughout this period.
Trump's lead in Iowa can truly be categorized as historic. Not only does he have a secure 30-point advantage, but he is the only candidate in polling history to have garnered over 50% of the vote at this stage of the race. To put his lead into perspective, previous candidates who scored above 45% in Iowa before ultimately winning the caucuses include Walter Mondale in 1984, George W. Bush in 2000, Al Gore in 2000, and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump, however, has surpassed them all by polling at 51%.
With such a significant lead, there has been speculation as to whether Iowa's results will accurately reflect the eventual nomination. Some argue that New Hampshire, which holds the first Republican presidential primaries just a week after Iowa, might 'correct' Iowa's outcome. However, historical data doesn't fully support this notion. In fact, only two Iowa winners since 1980—Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000—went on to become the GOP nominee, despite the wide variability in prior results.
Moreover, when considering national polling data, all Iowa winners who led in the national polls did secure the GOP nomination, reinforcing the significance of Iowa as an early indicator of Republican support. Notably, both Bob Dole and George W. Bush fell into this category. Furthermore, even when national front-runners won Iowa but lost New Hampshire, they still managed to secure the nomination, as was the case for both Dole and Bush.
While Iowa's role in determining the ultimate nominee has varied over the years, the correlation between the state's results and the national front-runner cannot be ignored. Therefore, Nikki Haley's assertion that New Hampshire corrects Iowa's potential mistakes may be called into question when examining historical data.
As the clock ticks and the caucuses draw near, DeSantis and Haley face an uphill battle to narrow the wide gap with Trump. It remains to be seen whether their efforts will be enough to sway Republican voters and reshape the current political landscape.
