President Trump on Tuesday claimed the U.S. would be on the hook for $3 trillion in refunds and lost investments if the administration loses the pending tariffs case at the Supreme Court.
Why it matters: Trump is trying to ramp up the pressure on the court to preserve the centerpiece of his economic policy.
- In addition to the refund warning, in recent days he doubled down on promising a $2,000 dividend to most Americans from the tariff revenue collected so far.
- He's repeatedly said losing the case could "literally destroy" the country.
What they're saying: "The U.S. Supreme Court was given the wrong numbers. The 'unwind' in the event of a negative decision on Tariffs, would be, including investments made, to be made, and return of funds, in excess of 3 Trillion Dollars," Trump posted on Truth Social early Tuesday.
- "That would truly become an insurmountable National Security Event, and devastating to the future of our Country - Possibly non-sustainable!"
The intrigue: Trump posted the $3 trillion figure on Truth Social just hours after posting that a loss would cost $2 trillion in refunds on tariff revenue and lost investments.
By the numbers: Tariff collections in fiscal 2025 were about $195 billion.
- Recent collections were about $35 billion a month, or about $420 billion a year if that pace continues.
- Trade agreements with Japan, South Korea and the European Union call for investments of more than $1.5 trillion into the U.S. economy in coming years. Those pacts were not upfront payments, though, but future pledges over multiple years.
What to watch: While the Supreme Court raised the question of possible refunds during their Nov. 5 hearing, it's not clear if they will actually touch the subject in any ruling.
- If the tariffs are struck down, the refund question could become an entirely new fight.
