Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is preparing for potential shifts in polling data following the Democratic National Convention for Vice President Kamala Harris. A memo from Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis, circulated by the campaign, suggests that Harris may experience a slight, temporary increase in public opinion polls post-convention. This anticipated bump is a common occurrence known as a post-Convention bounce.
The memo speculates that Harris could see a temporary rise of 2 to 3 points in polls, attributing this to the typical trend observed after party conventions. Fabrizio had previously predicted a 'honeymoon' phase for Harris after she joined the Democratic ticket, a forecast that has materialized. Before Biden ended his re-election campaign, his support in Poll of Polls stood at 45%, trailing Trump at 49%. However, the dynamics shifted leading up to the convention, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%.
Fabrizio now foresees Harris's honeymoon phase continuing, largely due to favorable media coverage of the vice president. The memo also advises against placing excessive emphasis on national polls that may show Harris pulling ahead, emphasizing the importance of focusing on polling data in target states. The campaign's primary objective is to secure 270 Electoral College votes, with victory in these key states being crucial to achieving this goal.
