WASHINGTON – Two days after the Texas primary, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey disappointed many Republicans by announcing he wouldn’t run for U.S. Senate. Donald Trump, who despises Ducey for rejecting his lies about the 2020 election, was not among them.
Trump gloated that he’d scared off the governor with his prowess picking winners and losers in Texas, “where `Trump Endorsements’ went 33 wins and 0 loses, and he said, knowing I would never endorse him, “No thanks....’ Smart move, Doug.... I guess that means we can call this week 34 and 0!”
The boast is accurate, if you overlook the five Trump-backed candidates forced into May 24 runoffs – notably Attorney General Ken Paxton, who faces land commissioner George P. Bush.
Even Trump’s strongest embrace can’t overcome scandal.
The boast is also vastly exaggerated, because Trump ran up his batting average by attaching his name to incumbents with only token opposition, or none at all.
“It wasn’t like the president was taking big gambles in most cases,” said Josh Blank, research director at the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.
Of the 33 candidates Trump endorsed in the Texas Republican primary, 23 were incumbents. Of the rest, five won their nominations, five are in runoffs.
That’s a .500 batting average in truly competitive races.
Further supporting the case that Trump’s clout has limits, four of the five congressmen he snubbed sailed through their primaries without breaking a sweat. The one who did struggle, Rep. Van Taylor, was dragged down by a last-minute revelation of infidelity. He dropped his reelection bid the day after the primary.
In short, most of Trump’s endorsements were sure things: 16 members of Congress, 7 of them running unopposed.
Four statewide incumbents: Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller and Comptroller Glenn Hegar.
One state senator and two state House members.
Hegar’s endorsement came two days before polls opened, by which time there was little mystery about the likely outcome.
Abbott had the most energetic challengers and he still ended up with two-thirds of the vote. No Trump-backed incumbent drew less than 59%. Most drew far more – margins that suggest they didn’t need Trump’s help, even if they welcomed his seal of approval.
Still, the spin from the Trump camp is that he can make or break a candidate at will.
“No President’s endorsement in history has ever been as powerful as yours,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Trump’s state campaign chair, wrote in a gushing open memo distributed by Trump’s political action committee. “Every candidate I asked you to endorse won or is solidly in first place going into a run-off. You were 12-0 … from my list of recommendations.”
Like Trump’s 33-0 tally, Patrick’s includes the five heading to runoffs – to replace Bush as land commissioner, for state House and Senate, and for Tarrant County district attorney.
But as the last Texas lieutenant governor could attest, running first in a primary is no guarantee of winning the runoff.
That’s how David Dewhurst lost the 2002 Senate nomination to Ted Cruz.
Trump deserves credit for solid wins in five open seat contests – for Tarrant County judge, and two each for the U.S. House and Texas Senate.
Those were competitive races with crowded fields.
In Houston, former Army helicopter pilot Wesley Hunt won a 10-way congressional primary. In the Rio Grande Valley, business woman Monica De La Cruz topped a field of nine. Both had come close to toppling Democratic incumbents in 2020 and enjoyed wide support within the GOP establishment.
The ex-president took a bigger gamble by backing Tim O’Hare for Tarrant County judge in a five-way race that included a longtime Fort Worth mayor, Betsy Price. He won with 57%.
Even in the races that resulted in runoffs, Trump’s backing probably helped.
State Sen. Dawn Buckingham led a crowded field with 42% in her bid to replace Bush as land commissioner.
“As plugged in as you may be as a state senator, your profile is still extremely low, statewide,” said Blank. “With so many candidates jumping in. It would have taken a pretty Herculean effort for Buckingham to clear the 50% threshold on the first go round.”
There’s also a case to be made that Trump played a role in Taylor dropping his reelection bid.
Like three of the other congressmen snubbed by Trump, Taylor voted to certify President Joe Biden’s victory. Rivals hammered him for that.
Just before primary day, word spread that Taylor had had an affair – with an ex-jihadist whose first husband, now dead, was a notorious leader of the extremist Islamic State. Without a Trump endorsement, he was vulnerable, and he would have had a lot of explaining to do in a runoff.
He apologized a day after the primary, conceding the nomination to former Collin County judge Keith Self.
“That is complicated,” Blank said.
Of the five disappointments on Trump’s list, the attorney general race was the toughest to spin as a victory.
George P. Bush is the last remaining elected member of a Republican dynasty that produced two presidents, neither of whom supported Trump.
Bush did align himself with Trump, despite the snarky takedown of his father, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, as “low-energy Jeb” in the 2016 primaries. Still, Trump gave Paxton the nod nearly two months after Bush jumped into the race.
“Attorney General Ken Paxton has been bravely on the front line in the fight for Texas, and America, against the vicious and very dangerous Radical Left Democrats, and the foolish and unsuspecting RINOs that are destroying our Country,” his July 26 statement said. “Ken has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
“Trump’s endorsement early probably helped stem further bleeding for the Paxton campaign,” said Blank of UT.
Paxton played a central role in Trump’s effort to overturn the 2020 election, going all the way to the Supreme Court to challenge Biden victories in four states. The court promptly rejected the effort.
Paxton also spoke at Trump’s “stop the steal” rally shortly before a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol trying to intimidate Congress and Vice President Mike Pence.
But Paxton’s baggage is substantial.
He’s been under indictment on securities fraud charges for years. A number of top aides resigned last year and accused him of unethically trying to help a campaign donor.
“Ken Paxton finished first in a tough 4-way race. He is in a solid first place position going into the run-off,” Patrick said in his open memo.
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