
The Trump administration is reportedly discussing whether rich Republican donors with Cuban heritage could play a role in an eventual transition if the Havana regime is ousted.
"Regime change is lined up," a Trump official told The Atlantic. However, the outlet cautioned that any such scenario will likely resemble what has taken place in Venezuela since the beginning of the year, where the administration installed then-Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has taken a friendly approach towards the administration.
Officials added that a projected outcome would see President Donald Trump declare victory and create conditions for the U.S. to do business in the island while avoiding conflict with the current regime, a scenario that could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis currently taking place.
The Cuban regime acknowledged conversations with the U.S. as the island approaches an economic breaking point. Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos Espiñeira, a Havana-based economist, told the LA Times that the current conditions mark an unprecedented low, pointing to soaring inflation, declining public services and long-standing structural weaknesses.
"The pact has failed," said Espiñeira, adding that he faults the regime for soaring inflation and neglecting sectors like industry and healthcare.
The crisis has intensified in recent weeks as the island experienced multiple nationwide blackouts, tied in part to a U.S. fuel blockade imposed earlier this year, which has effectively cut off oil shipments to the island. According to Cuban authorities, the country has not received foreign fuel supplies for three months and currently produces only about 40% of the energy it needs, as Al Jazeera points out.
Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío said over the weekend that the government is preparing for potential escalation following recent U.S. rhetoric, though he noted such scenarios are not considered likely. "We would be naive if we do not prepare," he said.
However, The commander of the U.S. Southern Command, Francis Donovan, told lawmakers last week that the army is not making preparations for a forceful takeover of the island.
Asked if his forces conducted drills simulating such a scenario, Donovan said no. He also said he was not aware of any plans from the Trump administration to support Cuban groups in exile to topple the Havana regime.
He noted that the U.S. would only deploy troops in the island in case there was a "threat to the security" of the U.S. embassy or its base in Guantanamo Bay and would aim to "defend Americans."
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