Triple lock could add £45bn a year to state pensions bill by 2050, IFS says

Rishi Sunak has pledged to maintain the triple lock, while Labour has indicated it would maintain the guarantee for another five years if it wins the next election. Photograph: Lucia Lanpur/Alamy

Maintaining the triple lock on state pensions could add as much as £45bn a year to the welfare bill by 2050, putting “insurmountable pressure” on the government to increase the minimum retirement age, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

In a report published ahead of the release next week of official data for earnings growth, which will be used to set the annual increase in pensions, the IFS estimates spending on retirees could rise by a further £2bn from April 2024.