Week 2 was highlighted by great quarterbacking performances. Geno Smith outdueled Jared Goff in a Michigan battle of redemption stories. Lamar Jackson gave the Baltimore Ravens an early two-game lead on the defending AFC North champion Cincinnati Bengals. Baker Mayfield — Baker Mayfield! — threw for 300-plus yards for the first time since October 2021.
That is not what we’re here to discuss. We are here to celebrate the worst performances of Week 2.
There was no shortage of garbage quarterbacking last week — so much so that we went eight deep with passers who advanced stats deemed a net detriment to their offenses. But as offseason rust dissolves we found more stable performances. Teams improved to 1-1 and kept their fanbases from punching the panic button for at least one more Sunday.
Despite these improvements, there was some bad football on display in Week 2. Joe Burrow struggled for a second straight Sunday. Justin Fields’ comeback efforts against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended with an interception, sack and another interception all in a four-play span. Zach Wilson played up to expectations, which just means he threw a bunch of interceptions in a loss.
Who was the worst? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 2 EPA against their 2022 average we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the follow up to their 2023 debuts.
6
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.6
Week 1 EPA: 2.5
Difference: 5.1 points worse
Last week’s grossest quarterback was better in Week 2 but nowhere near his 2021-22 standard. Playing with a re-tweaked calf — the same one he hurt in the preseason — limited his mobility in the pocket and ability to step into big throws downfield. Burrow didn’t complete a single pass that traveled more than 14 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and, in fact, only attempted six of them in 42 dropbacks.
This robbed the Bengals of their offensive identity. Ja’Marr Chase continues to be solely a short-range target. He has 10 catches in two games for just 70 yards and zero touchdowns. Tee Higgins put in work to float a foundering unit but six of his eight catches came between five and nine yards downfield.
That’s a problem! Burrow’s 6.8 air yards per throw in 2022 were the lowest mark of his career. Through two games he’s down to 5.8 air yards and his offense has scored just two touchdowns. There’s no vertical dimension to a passing game that’s completed just two attempts that have traveled 15-plus yards downfield — and both those catches were made by guys on the other team.
If Burrow is injured, this will get worse before it gets better. The Bengals have been able to escape Zac Taylor’s mostly average decision making through the force of nature behind center and a defense Lou Anarumo has consistently made greater than the sum of its parts. But Burrow clearly isn’t himself and Anarumo’s unit is breaking in a host of new young starters in the secondary.
So far this has manifested in an 0-2 record and double-digit fourth quarter deficits in each game. There may not be an easy fix for this. Cincinnati might be stuck healing up and dealing with its growing pains before making a mad dash back toward playoff contention.
5
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 8.5
Week 1 EPA: -1.3
Difference: 9.8 points worse
Garoppolo outperformed expectations in Week 1 against a powerful Denver Broncos defense. He couldn’t do the same against the Buffalo Bills.
The veteran’s steady diet of short, low-risk passes was successful when targeting Davante Adams. Those eight throws resulted in six receptions for 84 yards — only 21 of which came after the catch — and a touchdown. That’s a 147.9 passer rating, which is generally considered pretty, pretty, prett-ay good.
Unfortunately, when not targeting an All-Pro wide receiver those numbers fell to 10 for 16 and 101 yards (a grim 6.3 yards per attempt), zero touchdowns, two interceptions and a 40.9 rating. He was more than 100 points worse if the ball wasn’t going to Adams, which is absolutely something Davante should use if he’s looking for a pay bump after 2022’s five-year, $140 million deal.
What’s more, Garoppolo didn’t just throw two interceptions Sunday. He threw them on short, safe passes to his running backs, which should be the steadiest arrows in his quiver. One was a deflected pass under pressure. The second was not:
That's @MatthewMilanoo's ball!
📺: @CBS | @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/INMzgiL7xf
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) September 17, 2023
This is the Garoppolo we have come to know and accept on Sundays. He defaults to short passes, relies on his playmakers to maximize each catch and, almost without fail, provides one bad decision or head-scratching throw per quarter. The Raiders opted for him because they’d felt they’d gone as far as they could with Derek Carr (feasible), didn’t have the draft position to target a surefire prospect (accurate) and thought reuniting Garoppolo with former coordinator Josh McDaniels would provide a spark (spurious). Thus, we’re stuck with another bad-to-average Las Vegas team that’s capable of surprise but rarely actual threats.
4
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: -3
Week 1 EPA: -13.2
Difference: 10.2 points worse
Wilson was a quarterback who made his team, on average, a field goal worse each time he started in 2022. He returned to the lineup in place of Aaron Rodgers last Monday and earned a win and nearly a positive EPA score (-1!). His first start of the season, however, provided none of these things.
Wilson threw three interceptions, leaving him with the Nate Peterman-esque passing rating of 38.3 at the game’s end (launching 12 straight passes into the turf would get you a 39.6). In fairness, each of those interceptions came in the fourth quarter of a game his Jets already trailed by 17 points. But 68 of his 170 passing yards and his lone touchdown came on a long run-after-catch from Garrett Wilson, so we can agree his stats aren’t completely truthful either in favor or against him.
WILSON. WILSON. TOUCHDOWN.#NYJvsDAL on CBS & Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/GheoDzRskP
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 17, 2023
The space between was standard Zach Wilson stuff. He threw passes that looked good in theory but allowed enough time between window and execution to be swatted down by closing Cowboys (seven passes defensed). He threw short passes to his right with moderate success and was a complete waste when asked to throw back across his body to the other sideline.
0-5 with an interception when throwing more than 14 yards downfield. 0-6 with two interceptions when throwing to the left. At one point, expectations got so low the Jets’ social media team was reduced to celebrating first downs (they had 12, in part because they converted one of 10 third down opportunities).
Zach move the chains himself on back to back plays! pic.twitter.com/3JrTh4CAZo
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 17, 2023
These are the sigils of a broken man. Wilson was judged by a swarming defense and found lacking. The Jets are in real, true trouble this season.
3
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.2
Week 1 EPA: -11
Difference: 12.2 points worse
The good news is, the Bears remembered they traded for D.J. Moore last offseason. The bad news is it didn’t really make a difference.
Moore had six catches for 103 yards and a touchdown after only two targets (and two catches for 25 yards) in his Chicago debut last week. But Fields was 10 of 22 when targeting anyone else for just 107 yards, a talent gap exacerbated by Darnell Mooney leaving due to injury. While the good news was he completed three of his four deep balls, it was mitigated by the fact he was 0-6 when it came to intermediate throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield.
Normally Fields creates his own silver lining on the ground, but that didn’t happen in Tampa. The Buccaneers were content to rush with three or four defenders, dropping several defensive backs in coverage to fluster the young QB. Five of Fields’ six sacks — and again on a strip sack that was later correctly overturned to an incomplete pass — came with no more than four Tampa Bay defenders attacking the pocket. The only time the Bucs earned a sack with a blitz came with fewer than two minutes to play in a 10-point game.
Fields tried to run, but either couldn’t find purchase or exacerbated the problem by charging dead-first toward danger.
That’s not bad protection! Fields has four seconds in the pocket before he decides to scramble, shrugging off a low-percentage checkdown to Trent Taylor and launching himself into disaster.
Two plays later, the Bears gave him 4.5 seconds of protection against a four-man rush on third down. It made no difference and the outcome was almost exactly the same.
Fields’ trump card is his legs, but those five-man fronts dropped out to leave multiple QB spies that deterred those efforts. His four rush attempts were his lowest since 2021. His three rushing yards were the least he’d ever had in a game in which he’d played at least six snaps.
All this led to a very bad day at the office, another week of what’s sure to be stupid headlines and talk radio calls deriding the culture or blocking or whatever the hell, and an 0-2 start. The Bears have the capacity to sink to the top of the NFL Draft order once more. If Fields keeps playing like he did in Week 2, they may not trade back if there’s a blue chip quarterback available.
2
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: -2.3
Week 1 EPA: -19.9
Difference: 17.6 points worse
Watson was responsible for more Pittsburgh touchdowns (two, via pick-six and returned fumble) than Browns ones. He somehow got flagged twice for personal fouls. His penalty and sack losses came out to negative-55 yards.
This was hot garbage, and it’s what the Browns are paying $230 million for, guaranteed, through 2026.
1
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 expected points added (EPA) per game: 5.4
Week 1 EPA: -14.5
Difference: 19.9 points worse
Trevor Lawrence on throws up to nine yards downfield: 20-29, 145 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 80.4 passer rating
Trevor Lawrence on throws 10-plus yards downfield: 2-12, 71 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 51.7 rating
Lawrence’s short throws were inoffensive. His long ones were ineffective. By those powers combined we got one of the worst non-Urban Meyer games of the rising quarterback’s career and a reminder the Jaguars aren’t quite ready to join the AFC’s circle of trust.
The third-year QB split those deep and intermediate targets fairly cleanly between Calvin Ridley, Zay Jones, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. Despite that talented group, a rebuilt Kansas City secondary had little problem shutting down the Jacksonville offense.
What was the culprit here? There were a few. The Chiefs were able to generate consistent pressure with a four-man rush, taking advantage of Chris Jones’ (1.5 sacks, two quarterback hits) return to the lineup. Lawrence’s 2.43 seconds, on average, between snap and throw was tied for the second-lowest figure of Week 2, per Next Gen Stats. It was also the same amount of time he had to throw in Week 1’s comfortable win over the Indianapolis Colts, so the short throws that created weren’t the only factor here.
Instead, the blame can be attributed to the quality of pressure the Chiefs got — a strong push that deflected or changed the path of passes before they could get downfield. Doing this with limited blitzes increased the static in the defensive backfield and gave way to a secondary that was all over Jacksonville’s third down calls.
Between that coverage and pass rush, Lawrence’s average completion only went 4.4 yards downfield — a drop of two full yards from his Week 1 performance. Christian Kirk may have had 100-plus receiving yards, but only two of his catches came more than six yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Lawrence’s rushed throws weren’t always accurate, but a heap of credit belongs to the Chiefs’ secondary for rarely getting beat and snuffing out Jacksonville’s playmakers before they could make an impact. Ridley, for example, had a six yard catch on his first play of the game then earned a pass interference flag and hauled in a 26-yard catch in the second quarter. That was the extent of his impact, seven days after a 101-yard debut.
The good news is these flaws can be fixed. New schemes can be hatched, and Doug Peterson is trustworthy enough as a head coach to hatch them. Despite the lack of consistency Lawrence had several big throws that merely missed by inches (mostly out the back of the end zone). The loss hurts — as does that horrific EPA — but it doesn’t seem fatal.
