The Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence agreed to a massive contract extension that was first reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Thursday. As with wide receiver contracts and Brandon Aiyuk, we can surmise that the Lawrence deal will be one that Brock Purdy will be operating off of in his contract negotiations next offseason.
Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, earned a five-year extension worth up to $275 million with $142 million fully guaranteed. His $55 million average annual value matches Bengals QB for the most in the NFL. His guarantees come in just behind Burrow’s $146,510,000 and just ahead of Lamar Jackson’s $135 million.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson’s $230 million fully guaranteed albatross tops the market, but there appears to be an understanding around the league that his deal won’t be the standard going forward.
For Purdy, who finished fourth in MVP voting last year in his first full season as a starter, he’ll likely have a floor in the Burrow/Lawrence range assuming he’s as good or better than he was in 2023. If he regresses his floor may come down a little bit, but chances are we’ll see some level of improvement since he’ll have a full offseason this year and his full slate of offensive weapons at his disposal once again.
Any kind of uptick in production from his super-efficient 2023 campaign could easily push his AAV up to $60 million. A contract in the range of five years and $300 million is certainly on the table if Purdy is as good or better in 2024 than he was a season ago. That’s the nature of starting quarterback contracts. The going rate is whatever the latest deal was.
As with all NFL contracts it’ll be the guarantees that matter the most. Purdy’s resume is better than Lawrence’s and on par with Burrow’s. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Purdy’s guarantees come in around the $150 million mark with the $300 million max value.
Of course all of those numbers could get blown out of the water depending on how the contracts shake out for Tua Tagovailoa in Miami or Jordan Love in Green Bay.
Regardless of where the numbers land exactly, this will mark a sizable change for the 49ers in how they construct a roster. They’ve been able to spend big at other spots the last few years because their QB has been relatively inexpensive. Even Jimmy Garoppolo’s deal wasn’t near the top of the market by the time his final years with the club came around. Having a QB making money commensurate with the NFL’s top QBs will put a ton of onus on Purdy to pick up some slack when the roster becomes less expensive at other spots.
