KEY POINTS OF JIM CHALMERS' STATEMENT ON THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK TO PARLIAMENT:
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
* 2022: 7.75pct in Q4 vs 6.1pct in Q2 (current)
* 2023: 5.5pct by Q2, 3.5pct by Q4
* 2024: 2.75pct by Q2
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (real)
* 2021/22: 3.75pct, down from 4.25pct in PEFO*
* 2022/23: 3pct, down from 3.5pct
* 2023/24: 2pct, down from 2.5pct
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
* Currently at 3.5pct and forecast to remain "low" for rest of this year
* 3.75pct by June 2023, in line with PEFO*
* 4pct by June 2024, up from 3.75pct in PEFO*
EMPLOYMENT
* 1.5 pct in 2022/23, in line with PEFO*
* 1.25pct in 2023/24, down from 1.5pct in PEFO*
WAGE PRICE INDEX
* Nominal wages to grow by 3.75pct in 2022/23 and 2023/24 vs PEFO* forecasts of 3.25pct
* Real wages (excluding inflation) won't start growing again until 2023/24
BUDGET
* Short, medium and longer-term pressures on the budget are now "more pronounced"
* Additional COVID-related expenditure so far will cost the budget an extra $1.6 billion this year
* A temporary improvement in tax receipts may not persist over time
* Government payments will be around $30 billion higher over the forward estimates than was forecast pre-election
* Some blowouts likely, including the former government's Modernising Business Registers project, which could be $1 billion over budget
* The cost of interest on government debt will grow as more debt is refinanced at higher yields
* Interest payments on government debt will be the fastest growing area of government spending
* A full set of fiscal forecasts will be published in Labor's October budget
* Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook, published in April ahead of the May 21 federal poll
Source: Treasury, speech by Treasurer Jim Chalmers
