The rate of transition from “dirty” to green jobs is rapidly rising but older and blue-collar workers are being left behind, new research has found.
Overall the transition rate from dirty to clean industries increased tenfold between 2005 and 2021 with a significant uptick in EV-related roles – even before the $369bn Inflation Reduction Act boost for renewables and electric cars.
Yet fewer than 1% of all workers who leave a dirty job appear to get another in a clean or green industry, raising concerns about who will benefit from the green transition, according to a study published in the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Researchers from the University of Pennsylvania analysed data from 130m online work profiles – representing approximately 300m job-to-job transitions – to examine how workers may be affected by the shift from fossil fuels towards less dirty or carbon-intensive energy sources.
Dirty industries include coal, oil and gas extraction or production, as well as energy-intensive manufacturing jobs like cement, mining, chemical and paper and pulp.
Older workers (in their 40s, 50s and 60s) and those without a college education appear least likely to move into green jobs, which are classified as roles clearly associated with renewable energy like solar, wind or the production of electric vehicles.
So far, the majority of green jobs have gone to white-collar workers like sales managers, software developers and marketing managers. Just over a quarter (27%) appear to have gone to first-time job seekers, and more than 20,000 jobs went to overseas workers.
Overall, about one in five workers moved from one dirty job to another. But in some cities, the share of dirty-to-dirty transitions is as high as 90%, suggesting there are limited attractive options outside carbon-intensive industries.
In some states such as Louisiana, Delaware and Texas over half of all transitions out of heavy industry or dirty jobs are into other dirty jobs, while workers in California, Oregon and Arizona workers are most likely to move into EV or clean energy industries. This may be down to a heavier concentration of fossil-fuel intensive jobs and barriers in accessing educational opportunities including reskilling.
“Our data suggest that, if past trends continue, the clean energy transition may have important distributional consequences that could exacerbate underlying trends in labor market inequality,” the authors said.
The IRA, Biden’s landmark climate legislation passed a year ago, targets both supply and demand for EVs and renewable technologies, and is central to the administration’s climate and economic policies.
No Republican voted for the IRA but most of the investment that has been triggered by the bill has been funneled into projects in GOP-held congressional districts, with battery and electric vehicle plants popping up in states such as Georgia, Tennessee and Texas.
The IRA has been criticised for failing to require worker protections amid fears that the landmark funding boost will entrench existing inequalities – unless steps are taken to ensure the transition to a green economy is geographically, racially and socially just.
“It’s tough to forecast the IRA’s effects … but it will likely have a significant positive effect on the growth of green jobs overall,” said lead author Jisung Park, an environmental and labor economist at Penn’s School of Social Policy & Practice.
“The details of how the IRA will be implemented and targeted will likely continue to be in flux, but there certainly appears to be significant interest among policymakers in ensuring that we apply the lessons from previous employment shocks – including the so-called ‘China shock’ or from earlier environmental policies like the Clean Air Act – which had highly unequal impacts on workers across geography, educational background, and income,” Park added.
On Monday, as part of an IRA anniversary tour by the Biden administration, the treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, visits a union facility in Las Vegas, Nevada – a key battleground state for 2024 – to meet workers learning skills to work on clean energy projects. She said: “Accelerating these transitions can mean greater demand for US clean energy technologies produced by American workers. It can also bolster global clean energy supply chains.”
