SHORTLY before 7.15am, before the few trains that will run today had rolled out of their depot, came a perceptive comment about the state of the rail dispute. “We need 2,000 people who voted no last time to change their vote and the deal will pass,” Network Rail’s chief negotiator Tim Shoveller told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. “We think that’s within touching distance.”
Let’s not get overexcited. Rail strikes have been taking place since June last year. Major issues of principle are unresolved. Both sides are embedded. And the dispute has fractured into two: one involving 21,000 signallers and maintenance staff at Network Rail, the other 20,000 train and station staff at 14 train companies. But what Mr Shoveller was saying was: it’s now a game of numbers. If Network Rail can get a deal over the line, the chance of the train companies settling their part of the dispute increases. When the RMT first balloted its Network Rail members on strike action last May, some 14,146 of the 21,020 balloted said yes and 1,211 said no (5,688 didn’t bother to vote). When it sought to renew its six-month strike mandate in November, a total of 13,511 said yes, 1,240 said no and 6,286 didn’t vote.
