Trades during the NFL draft come with obvious risks. Most notably, what if the player that the Green Bay Packers move up for doesn’t pan out?
In addition to that, when moving up, there is draft capital that is being given up, and whether a team is trading up or down, they risk missing out a prospect who ranks highly on their big board.
During Brian Gutekunst’s tenure as GM, he has been very willing to move around the draft board, and has done so in both directions. A few examples include trading down in the first round and then back up in 2018 to draft Jaire Alexander. In 2019, he traded up in the first round to take Darnell Savage. He did the same in 2020 to take Jordan Love, and then made a fairly big jump during the second-round of 2022 to select Christian Watson.
In making these types of moves, it takes an extreme confidence in the player and a feeling from the organization that it’s a prospect who they may not normally have the opportunity to add to their roster through the draft.
“I think, certainly, depending on how far you’re going to go up,” said Gutekunst, “to give one of those picks to move up, it better be for the kind of player that you don’t feel you’re going to have an opportunity to get in most years.”
On the flip side of these examples are the decisions Gutekunst has made to trade down. We often associate those moves with what is gained in terms of the draft picks acquired, but there’s also a risk involved as well—a player graded highly on the team’s board could – and perhaps likely – will be gone before they are back on the clock.
“Whenever you trade back,” said Gutekunst, “you have to expect to lose the players that are on the board that you might be willing to pick at that spot. That’s part of it. It’s why we work so hard at getting the value right of the players on the board, so that you can read it.
”If you feel that it’s strong and you can move back and still get someone you have the same kind of value on, you do. I think you gotta be very careful too in love with individual players. You gotta be careful of that. You have to think of these things not emotionally, but hey we do a lot of work to try to get this value right. If the board is telling us we can move back, then we will.“
Jayden Reed had an impressive rookie season for the Packers, finishing second on the team in receptions and yards. Down the stretch, he became a go-to target for Jordan Love.
However, before selecting Reed with the 50th pick in last year’s draft, the Packers traded down. And not just once, but twice, moving from pick 45 to 48 and then 48 to 50.
While those aren’t substantial jumps down the draft board, with each trade the Packers ran the risk of not being able to draft Reed. What if that were the case? How does that change the 2023 season for the Packers?
“It’s kind of like – I mean, we took Luke Musgrave where we took him. We really liked Tucker (Kraft) and couldn’t believe he was still there in the third. If we would’ve kept moving back, or if Jayden wouldn’t have been there, we could’ve taken him (Kraft) and felt really good about it because those guys were rated right there. We talk a little bit about it being boring.
”Hopefully, you build the board and you go through this enough to where you have enough confidence in the board to follow it. But we’re all human and every scout in there has favorite players up there. At the same time, we’re trying to do what’s best for the organization, the team – not for us individually.”
Over time, there’s a callus that develops where, not only general managers but scouts, realize that this is a part of the process, and it’s recognized that players, and ones potentially rated fairly highly on the team board, are going to be drafted elsewhere.
However, helping GMs and scouts overcome that perhaps uneasy feeling is the months and months of work they’ve put in prior to the draft, trusting their processes and board, to still remain confident that they will get a quality player when they are back on the clock.
“You’re always hopeful there’s guys up there,” said Gutekunst about trading down. “As the board –maybe you’re 30 picks away and you’re hoping this guy falls there and then three picks later he’s gone, there’s some human nature to it because there’s a lot of really good players you have to watch come off that board.
“We pick 25. There’s going to be 24 really good players before we pick if we stay where we’re at…I think over time it’s less and less. You understand the nature of it, and it’s fun to watch the young scouts get really hopeful and maybe it doesn’t work out. Go through that learning curve.”
The Packers final board is pretty well set at this point, although Gutekunst did mention that one more meeting on Monday night would be held to go over it again. Gutekunst also added that conversations with other teams about potentially moving around the draft board have already begun.
With 11 draft picks, which is tied for the most in the NFL, Gutekunst has the flexibility to really attack this draft as he sees fit and based on how the board falls—whether that be staying put, moving up, or moving down.
With five selections in the first 91 picks, Gutekunst and the Packers have a chance to obtain five players that fall within the top 50 of their big board. That, of course, has the potential to make a huge impact on the 2024 season. It also is a key factor in whether or not the Packers will move up on Day 1 of the draft because in order to do so, it likely means parting with at least one of those very valuable picks.
“Hopefully it falls that way,” said Gutekunst on potentially drafting five players within their top 50. “You never really know how it’s going to fall but usually the way our numbers do fall, you’re going to be close to that.
“So, yeah, again, I think picks on those first two days are hard to come by. When you have an opportunity to obtain one, I think you have to seriously consider it because analytics and the history show what kind of player you’re going to get. Again, the draft is littered with players from sixth, seventh, undrafted that have become great players and, certainly, picks way up high that don’t become players. But it certainly improves your odds.”
