PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. — So here’s the case against trading Austin Meadows:
Since 2019, he’s led the Rays in plate appearances, hits, RBI, runs, doubles and walks. He’s also second in home runs and fourth in WAR among position players.
His OPS+ on baseballreference.com — which measures his slugging percentage and on-base percentage against league average while taking into account differences in home ballparks — is the fifth-highest in the American League for a lefthanded hitter during that span.
He’s still six weeks away from his 27th birthday, which means he’s just entering the prime of his career. And his projected 2022 salary in his first year of arbitration is in the $4 million range, which is a bargain considering his production.
And here’s the case for trading Meadows:
Everything else.
Yeah, that sounds overly broad, but it’s kind of true. If you take into account the Rays’ roster configuration, Meadows’ current market value, his future earnings potential, the team’s watchful eye on the payroll and Tampa Bay’s fixation with defense, this might be the perfect time for a deal.
Case closed, right? I’m being facetious, but there are a lot of considerations in a possible Meadows trade.
For instance, if he continues hitting at this pace, his salary will soar in arbitration. The Rays occasionally open the checkbook for a high-priced hitter, but usually at a premium defensive spot. Conversely, if Meadows doesn’t continue hitting at this pace, then the Rays will have wasted an opportunity to trade him when his stock is high. Sort of damned if he hits, damned if he doesn’t.
He’s also a lefthanded hitter on a team that is seeking a righthanded power bat. Meadows is one of a hefty group of Tampa Bay hitters who have struggled against lefthanded pitching (including Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier and Brett Phillips), and he’s the least valuable defensively in that group.
Meadows was a liability defensively in rightfield in 2019 but performed fairly well in leftfield in 2021. The problem is Randy Arozarena is also a much better leftfielder than rightfielder, and the Rays are not looking to limit Arozarena in a platoon. And with Josh Lowe on the horizon, the Rays have another lefthanded-hitting outfielder they’ll soon need to integrate in the lineup.
Add all of that up, and it makes sense that Meadows’ name has hit the rumor circuit along with Kiermaier.
He’s aware of the chatter, and his agent put in a call to baseball operations president Erik Neander to get a sense of any possible move, but Meadows said Sunday he would prefer not to dwell on something out of his control.
“I try to stay off social media, but it’s easier said than done,” Meadows said. “For me, I just try to take care of what I can and let everything else play out.”
That’s similar to the approach of manager Kevin Cash. Neander and general manager Peter Bendix often contact players even before the rumors arrive to give them a heads-up, so Cash prefers to keep conversations rooted on the field.
“It’s our job as a staff to reassure the player how important they are,” Cash said. “You can read a lot, and it can really kind of bum you out. Kevin Kiermaier is a really special Major League player, and we’re fortunate to have him along with Austin Meadows. If they ask a question, it’s my job to give them the best answer, but those business decisions are probably best coming from Erik and Pete.”
Even while acknowledging all of the reasons behind a potential trade, it’s not as if the Rays are eager to get rid of Meadows. They don’t need to dump his salary in 2022, and his production more than matches his paycheck. He hit 33 homers at age 24 and drove in 106 runs at 26. Those are not the numbers of a hitter you typically allow to walk out the door.
But the Rays rarely operate in a vacuum. Every move is influenced by a half-dozen other factors. That’s why they’ve dealt Emilio Pagan, Mallex Smith, Tommy Pham, Willy Adames, Diego Castillo, Rich Hill and Joey Wendle right after — or in the midst of — successful seasons.
Money is always a factor, but so is depth. Sometimes the money needs to be reapportioned, and sometimes a position of strength is swapped for a position of need. Sometimes, they just need to move somebody out of the way for the next wave.
None of this means a trade is imminent. With so many free agents still on the market after the lockout, it’s possible the Rays sit back and wait to see if a National League team is still searching for a designated hitter in a couple of weeks or if another team needs a lefthanded thumper in the outfield.
And if the right opportunity does not present itself, there will always be room in the Tampa Bay lineup for a hitter with 30-homer power.
