Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi are increasingly betting that the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, will remain far from normal operating conditions in the coming weeks, despite diplomatic efforts and periodic signs of progress in the Middle East.
As of Monday, Kalshi's market tracking indicated that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal, implying roughly a 66% probability that conditions would not normalize by mid-June, reflecting deep skepticism among traders that shipping disruptions can be resolved quickly.
