The Green Bay Packers are going into the 2022 NFL draft with 11 picks: two each in the first, second and fourth rounds, three in the seventh round and one each in the third and fifth rounds.
The Packers have only one more pick than last year, when general manager Brian Gutekunst entered the 2021 draft with 10 total picks. But the value of his picks this year is essentially double that of last year.
This is clearly seen in the trade value charts. The Packers are in a terrific position whether they want to move around the draft board or stay put and make picks at their current spots. One thing is for sure: Gutekunst has the ammunition to move up the board aggressively if he wants.
Here’s the full draft order, with corresponding trade values (Rich Hill model):
No. 22 overall: 253 points
No. 28 overall: 209 points
No. 53 overall: 106 points
No. 59 overall: 91 points
No. 92 overall: 43 points
No. 132 overall: 20 points
No. 140 overall: 17 points
No. 171 overall: 8 points
No. 228 overall: 3 points
No. 249 overall: 2 points
No. 258 overall: 1 point
Total: 753 points (357 points in 2021)
The chart can be useful in terms of predicting potential trades or evaluating the value of trades executed during the draft.
For example: The Packers could realistically package together picks No. 22 and No. 92 (total value: 296 points) and get up to No. 17 overall (296 points) if desired.
Prefer the Jimmy Johnson trade value model?
Here’s how that would look for the Packers:
No. 22 overall: 780 points
No. 28 overall: 660 points
No. 53 overall: 370 points
No. 59 overall: 310 points
No. 92 overall: 132 points
No. 132 overall: 40 points
No. 140 overall: 36 points
No. 171 overall: 21.4 points
No. 228 overall: 1 point
No. 249 overall: 1 point
No. 258 overall: 1 point
Total: 2,352.4 points (1,175.6 points in 2021)
The Packers essentially have double the draft capital entering the 2022 draft compared to 2021 per the Johnson and Hill models.
According to Tankathon, the Packers rank 10th in the NFL in draft capital based on the Johnson model.
One final chart, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model for Over the Cap:
No. 22 overall: 1,434 points
No. 28 overall: 1,311 points
No. 53 overall: 988 points
No. 59 overall: 934 points
No. 92 overall: 709 points
No. 132 overall: 526 points
No. 140 overall: 496 points
No. 171 overall: 394 points
No. 228 overall: 249 points
No. 249 overall: 204 points
No. 258 overall: 186 points
Total: 7,431 points (5,415 points in 2021)
