Is that it? Is that the best western leaders can do as the midnight hour approaches? Kindly Joe Biden doled out sympathy and dollars in a seven-hour visit to Israel. Tiny amounts of aid are dribbling into Gaza. Two hostages out of 200 have been released. But there is no ceasefire, no “humanitarian pause” or safe zone, no end to the bombing, no long-term plan. Fears of a widening conflagration grow.
Instead there is reluctant, nonetheless shaming western acquiescence in the imminent, full-scale Israeli military onslaught on Gaza – with its understandable but unachievable aim: the permanent eradication of Hamas. With more than 4,000 Palestinians lying dead, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “team”, to use Biden’s jarring term, should be on a red card. It has just received a green light.
Western political disarray, confusion and tentativeness in the face of this unfolding disaster are dismaying. Visitors Rishi Sunak and Germany’s Olaf Scholz, sandwiching Biden, played to audiences at home and, gentle words of caution aside, otherwise played along with Netanyahu. Squabbling senior officials have rendered the EU an almost irrelevant spectator.
In the UN security council, tattered guardian of outraged international law, France and everyone else backed a draft resolution to pause hostilities and overturn Israel’s evacuation order in northern Gaza. But the US vetoed, saying it would tie Israel’s hands. Pathetically, the UK abstained along with Russia – an unfortunate pairing.
A great deal of diplomacy is ongoing behind the scenes. The biggest fear is that if Israel attacks, Hezbollah in Lebanon will open a second front. Instability is spreading to Iraq and Syria. US pledges of more bombs and bullets for Israel enrage the Muslim world. Meanwhile nobody, not even Biden, knows what is Netanyahu’s post-Hamas, postwar plan. That’s because there almost certainly isn’t one.
The 7 October terrorist atrocities that claimed 1,400 Israeli lives were horrifying. Few dispute Israel has a legal and moral right to defend itself. But Arab leaders, fearing their people’s wrath, are right to say collective punishment of civilians is not the way to do it. The UN, too, demands a ceasefire. Without it, more tragedies like the Anglican al-Ahli hospital blast are inevitable. Despite what dissembling British officials say, there is no such thing as a “calm and measured” invasion.
Israel’s war cabinet has set four objectives for “Operation Swords of Iron”: destroying Hamas militarily, eliminating the terrorist threat in Gaza, resolving the hostage crisis, and defending state borders and citizens. But officials admit they are still debating what comes after. They say renewed occupation is a non-starter. But an exit strategy appears absent.
An invasion “will mean confronting Hamas on its home turf [and] is likely to be a drawn-out, bloody affair,” the independent International Crisis Group warned. “Sustainably ridding Gaza of all manifestations of what Israelis see as terrorism and many Palestinians call resistance will be impossible absent wider political change.”
So who might run Gaza, assuming Hamas really is definitively deposed? A UN-appointed administrator backed by peacekeepers? A sort of international High Representative, as in Bosnia? It is suggested control could be restored to the Palestinian Authority, ousted by Hamas in 2007. But the PA is weak, unloved. For starters, President Mahmoud Abbas would have to make way for new elected leaders.
It’s unclear in any case how much leverage flailing western leaders can exert over any postwar settlement. Biden’s and Sunak’s seemingly unconditional support for Israel disqualifies them as peace brokers. The Arab League is again demanding revived talks to create a Palestinian state. But more than ever, Israel isn’t listening.
Biden has made three basic Middle East errors since 2021. Focusing on domestic issues and China, he tried to ignore the region. Not possible. Second, he climbed aboard Donald Trump’s Abraham accords and the Israel-Arab normalisation caravan. Fatally, those “historic” deals tried to bypass Palestinian conflict.
Third, Biden failed to come down hard when Netanyahu, a big Trump fan, mounted his own Capitol Hill-ish anti-democracy coup, allied himself with far-right zealots determined to annex the West Bank and undercut US efforts to defuse tensions with Iran. Biden gave him the cold shoulder but did little else.
That frost has now perforce melted, but not because Israel’s leader has suddenly changed. Netanyahu is fighting desperately to survive. When Biden got off Air Force One in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, he went to shake hands. But Netanyahu grabbed him in a needy bear hug. Dangerous, deeply unpopular, two-faced, toxic, that’s Netanyahu today.
It’s no exaggeration to say he could drag Biden down with him. After the initial shock brought them back together, the two leaders are again on diverging paths. Far from pursuing de-escalation, Netanyahu is predicting a “long war”. In fact, it seems that’s what he wants.
“This is in no one’s interest save Netanyahu, who likely sees the end of his government coming with the end of the upcoming battle with Hamas,” author David Rothkopf commented. Prolonged conflict, inflicting more civilian casualties and greater regional instability, could suck in the US ever more deeply.
Empathy-oozing Biden, trapped by his blind spots and his good nature, now “owns” this war. If the situation deteriorates further, there will be no escaping it. He already has one long war to fight, with Russia in Ukraine. He potentially faces another, cold or hot, with China. Like circling vultures, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, chummy in Beijing last week, smugly watch.
Whoever is to blame – and it’s certainly not all his fault – this catastrophe is unfolding on Biden’s watch. Trump and GOP cronies lurk; the US 2024 presidential vote is barely one year away. It’s a bitter thought that Netanyahu, who Biden did so much to save last week, would be among those cheering his defeat.
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