From the hills of Tuscany to the gravel roads of Troyes, it was a hectic, first GC week of the Tour de France. But Wednesday’s stage through the Massif Central is set to do anything but lower the GC and breakaway tension, predict EF Education-EasyPost manager Charly Wegelius and UAE Team Emirates counterpart Joxean Fernández Matxin.
The rollercoaster stage 11 includes 4,200 metres of vertical climbing and four category 3 or higher ascents in the last 50 kilometres, the last just two kilometres from the finish in Le Lioran.
“It’s a bit like going into the Apennines in the Giro d’Italia,” Wegelius says. “If you look at things that [former GC contender Laurent] Jalabert did in the central sections of France, these stages can turn out to be a lot harder than you’d expect.” He referenced the long-distance ambush by Jalabert on Miguel Indurain on the roads to the nearby town of Mende in 1995, almost up-ending the final outcome of the Tour.
“There was a day a few years ago, too, when the break went on the flat at the gun on a stage like this and UAE had to pull all day, for over 200 kilometres,” he recalls. “So anything can happen.”
Wegelius predicts a breakaway stage, as happened in 2020 when former EF rider Dani Martínez won in a prolonged, slow-mo battle against Lennard Kamna on the slopes of the ultra-steep Puy Mary, the hardest climb of Wednesday’s stage, and that “there will be a huge fight to be in on the break, too".
“Then there are the risks that people who finally make it into the break are either cooked as a result, or not good enough to survive to the final. So then if people fall out and argue, then it ends up being a small breakaway on the front. But I’m hoping for a break, anyway.” And is he hoping to get some his riders in there, too? “Absolutely".
“It’s a complicated stage because I think about 15 teams will be trying to get in the break,” UAE Team Emirates' Matxin told Cyclingnews before stage 10, “so I don’t know how much time it will take for the break to take shape.
“You might get a break of 20 riders with almost every team represented, in which case everybody will be happy, but it’s like there are two stages in one. First, there’s a fight for the break and then there’s the final part, the last 80 kilometres, which are going to be difficult to control.”
For the GC riders, “in the finale, positioning will be very important and we’ll have to be on the front. We’re the leaders, so we’ll defend that lead. I don’t like to race defensively, but this is one of those moments where we’ll be looking to keep what we have and make sure the break isn’t a dangerous one.”
A region notorious for its tricky, narrow climbs and corkscrew, technical descents, Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) told reporters on the rest day that he was planning on calling Greg Van Avermaet, the now-retired fellow Belgian and former Olympic Champion, to get an inside line of this part of the Massif Central in general and the final ascent to Le Lioran, where Van Avermaet won a Tour stage in 2016.
“The last 50 kilometres are identical to 2016,” Evenepoel pointed out. However, he had been unable to do a Massif Central ride this spring, as the area was relatively remote and it was difficult to fit into his schedule, hence his call to ‘Golden Greg’.
That said, Wegelius was not overly convinced that Evenepoel will, in any case, be at a disadvantage, even given his relative unfamiliarity with the terrain that both current race leader Tadej Pogačar and Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) know from the 2020 Tour de France stage, when Martínez won.
“Not in the modern world, everybody’s got access to all that information,” Wegelius insisted.
“I’m not a fan of doing in-person recons with riders on the bikes, anyway, because they naturally ride slower than they would do in the race, you don’t get the same momentum so they can get spooked by how hard a course is because they’re not riding in the peloton.
“So I think those recons, if you do them are better to do in the car without the rider. With the amount of information you get in the modern world, there won’t be any surprises, anyway.”
After a largely, very uneventful stage 10, the GC standings remain the same, with Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) 33 seconds ahead of Evenepoel, while Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) is third at 1:15.
However, given the brutally undulating terrain, Wegelius was expecting “a sort out” between the GC riders, “even if the break has gone".
“There will all kinds of body punches and upper cuts,” Wegelius concluded, “maybe not the killer blow that decides the Tour de France, but something that will contribute to the final outcome.”
But come what may on Wednesday, his favourite for final victory in any case, remains the same for now: “Pogačar”.
Stage 11 Sprints
- Intermediate sprint, km 65
- Time bonus sprint, km 196.4
Stage 11 Mountains
- Côte de Mouilloux (1.9km at 6.3%), cat. 4, km 79.8
- Côte de Larodde (3.8km at 6%), cat. 3, km 89.7
- Col de Néronne (3.8km at 9.1%), cat. 2, km 168.
- Puy Mary Pas de Peyrol (5.4km at 8%), cat. 1, km 180
- Col de Pertus (4.4km at 7.9%), cat. 2, km 196.4
- Col de Font de Cère (3.3km at 5.8%), cat. 3, km 208.2
