Cycling can be the cruellest mistress – or indeed master – and never was that better demonstrated than by the topsy-turvy early season experienced by some of the biggest favourties on the 2024 Tour de France start list.
There was a crash taking three out at once to varying degrees in April; there was a Grand Tour that went superbly for one of them but left us wondering how it would affect his July form – and then of course there are the guys outside the much-talked about 'Big Four', who could be feeling glad, or resentful, that it's not at least a 'Big Five' or 'Big Six'.
Here's our pre-race form guide to some of the biggest GC names you can expect to see in action from Saturday onwards.
JONAS VINGEGAARD (Visma-Lease a bike, 27)
Days raced in 2024: 14
Best result in 2024: 1st overall, Tirreno-Adriatico
CW rating: ***
By now we know the story. The defending Tour de France champion came down in an awful crash in April's Itzulia Basque Country stage race, broke several ribs, punctured a lung, broke his collarbone, and hasn't raced since.
The superb condition that had brought him overall wins at O Gran Camiño and Tirreno-Adriatico suddenly counted for very little.
As Tour preparation goes, you could call it sub-optimal.
But Visma-Lease a bike team boss Richard Plugge himself said that unless the Dane was ready to fight for the win, he would not go to the Tour. He has completed an altitude training camp at Tignes in the Alps too, so it's fair to assume he isn't far off.
In recent days though, team coach Mathieu Heijboer told Cycling Weekly that there were too many question marks over Vingegaard "to say that he is ready to win".
One of the issues, Heijboer said, was that training on the time trial bike had been significantly limited by his injuries. The Dane was, however, "very motivated", he said.
It's likely we'll see Vingegaard improve throughout the race – but given how hard the first week is, will that be too little, too late?
TADEJ POGAČAR (UAE Team Emirates, 25)
Days raced in 2024: 31
Best result in 2024: 1st overall, Giro d'Italia
CW rating: *****
If there had been any question marks over the zing left in Tadej Pogačar's legs after a raucous Giro d'Italia campaign that saw him win six stages and the overall by nearly 10 minutes, they were – tentatively – crossed out by the Slovenian's claims that he has "never felt better on the bike".
He had taken a step up since the Giro, he said, and was in even better shape than he expected.
Pogačar – who won the Tour de France in 2020-21 but has lost out to Jonas Vingegaard the past two seasons – has not raced since winning the Giro but it sounds like training has been going rather well.
However, great condition in the week before the Tour can fade by the crucial third week. Pogačar and his team will know this of course, and do all they can do to preserve it. But it may also prompt him to strike while the iron is hot and go for an early GC lead.
For now, he is the favourite by a stretch.
PRIMOŽ ROGLIČ (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, 34)
Days raced in 2024: 19
Best result in 2024: 1st overall, Critérium du Dauphiné
CW rating: ****
Having only just begun to get his teeth into his first season with the newly christened Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, having transferred from Jumbo-Visma, Primož Roglič got caught up in that same big Itzulia crash as Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel.
He didn't break any bones but suffered "extensive" injuries, and didn't race for two months.
However, his form upon his return might give those rooting for Vingegaard – so far untested in a race since the crash – cause for optimism.
Roglič won the Critérium du Dauphiné – a key Tour de France warm-up race, along with two mountains stages, plus a third in the time trial.
"To be able to win the Dauphiné with all of the things that happened in between, it’s beautiful," he said afterwards.
It's promising for the Slovenian, and will surely buoy him up mentally ahead of the big one. With Vingegaard and Evenepoel likely to be sub-par, 34-year-old Roglič ranks as the man most likely to challenge Pogačar, and may consider this the best chance he'll get to finally win the race.
REMCO EVENEPOEL (Soudal-Quick Step, 24)
Days raced in 2024: 25
Best result in 2024: 1st overall, Volta ao Algarve
CW rating: ***
Just as with Jonas Vingegaard, things were going so well for Remco Evenepoel up to Itzulia Basque Country. He'd won the Volta as Algarve and come second at Paris-Nice, winning stages in each.
It all went wrong after that, of course, and that crash at Itzulia left him with a broken scapula and collarbone to come back from.
Like Roglič, he did not race again until the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month, at which he showed very promising signs, beating Josh Tarling into second place by 17sec on stage four's lumpy, 34km time trial.
He performed passably well in the mountains, though lost small chunks of time to main rivals Roglič and Matteo Jorgenson – 40 seconds here, a minute-and-a-half there – when it came to the tough final few stages.
It's likely he will have improved his form still further by the time the riders line up in Florence on Saturday, but for now he is, wisely, not putting too much pressure on himself.
"Of course, I would like to have a good Tour and get some nice results," he said, but pointed out that it was a hard race, and his debut, "so the plan is to discover the race, take it one day at a time and see where this leads us."
CARLOS RODRÍGUEZ (Ineos Grenadiers, 23)
Days raced in 2024: 32
Best result in 2024: 1st overall, Tour de Romandie
CW rating: ****
Outside the Big Four (like Pello Bilbao below), the young Spaniard may have just squeezed under the radar of some – though his fifth-place ride at last year's Tour de France was impressive. His year began steadily but he quickly hit his stride with second overall in that fateful Itzulia Basque Country and followed that in short order by winning the Tour de Romandie.
His Critérium du Dauphiné was also a success, netting him a mountains stage win on the way to fourth overall – ahead, notably, of Remco Evenepoel.
He will lead the team alongside a resurgent Egan Bernal at the Tour and, we think, has a good chance of reprising at least his fifth place last year, with a podium not out of reach.
Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious, 34)
Days raced in 2024: 34
Best result in 2024: 2nd overall, Tour of Slovenia
CW rating: ***
A perennial botherer of the top GC echelons in the Grand Tours, Bilbao recorded his best Tour de France finish last year with sixth place, and was the winner of the hilly 10th stage to Issoire.
This year, his Tour build-up has gone well, with sixth overall at the lumpy – but reduced field – Itzulia Basque Country, followed by top-10 rides in both Amstel Gold and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
Most recently, he went to what was once Tadej Pogačar's favourite Tour warm-up race – the Tour of Slovenia, where he took home a stage and second overall.
That is arguably his best result this season and perfectly timed as the Tour approaches – expect another strong GC challenge from Bilbao this year.
