Progress on meeting Rishi Sunak’s “five pledges” has privately come under fire from Conservative MPs this week, six months on from his urge to be judged on delivering what he called the “people’s priorities”.
Jitters have extended all the way into Downing Street, with the prime minister’s senior aides traipsing across Whitehall to raise concerns about how the pledges are landing with the public.
Slides from a presentation given by No 10 media advisers to press officers working in government departments, seen by the Guardian, admit: “We still have a problem with cut-through.”
Citing internal polling, the presentation said 67% of people were unclear what the UK government’s priorities were, despite No 10’s efforts to hammer them home across speeches and set-piece announcements.
A data tracker was said to have found that a lower proportion of the public had reported hearing “government talk” about “all key narrative themes”, compared with the previous month.
Continuing to be blighted by what one senior Tory MP called the “landmines” of Boris Johnson’s administration, the government has found itself blown off course.
In a sign that Downing Street is wary of its winning 2019 voter coalition falling apart at the next election, press officers across the government were instructed at the meetings this week to focus on key audiences to reach.
An “audience segmentation” included in the presentation said cost of living and economy messages should be targeted at lower-income working families, and those who are out of work and struggling to make ends meet.
Migration messaging should be focused on working-age people outside London and those disengaged with the government, with key health audiences identified as frequent GP visitors, elective surgery patients and those with a chronic disease, the presentation suggested.
A No 10 source said the work was about “ensuring the public are aware that the government is focused on delivering their priorities”. They added a new approach was being taken to focus “on key audiences who are particularly impacted by policies or who are shown to be less engaged with policies that could impact them”.
Despite its best efforts, however, the government appears stuck in limbo in the run-up to recess and three looming byelections (with a further two possibly on the horizon). A lack of legislation means the Commons is missing its buzz, a deliberate tactic to let MPs spend much-needed time shoring up support in their constituencies.
However, Tory frontbenchers complain the air is one of malaise. One bemoaned becoming what they described as a “zombie government”, not helped by Sunak being absent for several set-piece sessions of prime minister’s questions.
It is natural for Commons business to slow down towards summer, particularly when the end of the parliamentary session approaches. Preparations turn instead to the final year’s legislative programme before the general election.
But Tory MPs complain that the country is not short of problems, and Keir Starmer’s Labour is snapping at their heels. Despite Sunak’s pledges on the economy, NHS and immigration, borrowing costs are soaring while inflation remains stubbornly high, the Rwanda plan is still stalled and waiting lists may climb higher still.
Recent polling showed “the gap between the parties widening in the past few weeks – undoing a lot of the Conservative polling gains since early in the year”, noted Prof Will Jennings, an elections expert at the University of Southampton.
Most government insiders think a reshuffle, about which there has been much speculation, is likely to be held back until after the three byelection results that will be delivered in the early hours of Friday 21 July.
But some MPs dispatched to the campaign trail feel their efforts will be in vain.
Somerton and Frome is said to have been treated as a “write-off” given that the investigation into its recently departed MP, David Warburton, has lasted 12 months. “The Lib Dems have had a whole year to prepare and it ticks basically every box for them,” said one government insider, even though the Tories currently have a 19,000 majority there.
Selby and Ainsty is proving tough as well. “Apathy is killing us,” said a Conservative MP sent up to canvass there recently. Another who has visited the constituency, which Boris Johnson’s ally Nigel Adams won with a 20,000 majority at the last election, added: “The Labour vote is stronger than expected.”
In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Tories are more confident about stemming poor turnout by turning the contest into a “referendum on Ulez”, the plan to expand London’s clean air zone by the Labour mayor of London, Sadiq Khan. However, the much slimmer Tory majority in Johnson’s old seat of about 7,000 puts it at greater risk of flipping.
Back in Westminster, the summer party season is already in full flow, giving Tory MPs the chance to drown their sorrows. At an event hosted by the Spectator, Sunak was upbeat, but once the prime minister and his senior team had left, MPs and aides openly discussed how they expected to lose the next election.
One cabinet minister acknowledged it was “entirely plausible” they would be trounced at the polls, while a former cabinet minister dramatically drew a finger across their throat and said: “Let’s not kid ourselves. It’s game over for us.”
Shadow cabinet ministers such as Wes Streeting and Jonathan Ashworth were among an unusual number of Labour figures who joined the throng, with Tory advisers openly sharing tips for government with their counterparts in opposition. One suggested that Labour should desist from criticising any decisions that may have been made by the civil service. “You’ll need them onside when you take over,” they suggested.
Despite the sense of dread creeping into growing quarters of the Conservative party, some remain optimistic. They believe Sunak will hit his target of halving inflation by the end of the year, and are counting on Labour to make its own missteps. “We just need the polling gap to close by 1% each month, then you’ll have the left turning on Starmer and it’ll be them losing their heads,” predicted one government insider.
